Abstract

ABSTRACT: Coastal economy in Mekong Delta depends mainly on agriculture cultivation and fishery farming. However, this region is facing on the most effect of climate change because of low land which greatly affect food security in whole region. Developing climate change scenarios, assessing impact of saltwater intrusion and flooding situations in further is essential and needed in this area. Due to sea level rise scenarios in 2030 and 2050 developed by Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), this research applied GIS methods to compare and evaluate the trend on salinity (concentration level, duration, extend) and inundation (depth, duration and extend) characteristics. The result showed that area of salinity level more than 8 ‰ is increasing from current condition of 2004 to year 2030 and 2050. These areas are mostly distribute on Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Ben Tre and Soc Trang provinces with total areas about 1,131,134 ha. Inundation areas with level more than 2.5m and flooding duration from 5 to 6 months are also increasing following climate change scenarios in 2030 and 2050. Vulnerability area by effect of inundation is mainly distributed on Long An and Tien Giang province with around 312,770 ha (in year 2050). Soc Trang has the biggest vulnerable areas, which affected by flooding and salinity, following by Ca Mau and Bac Lieu and small areas in Ben Tre, Tien Giang. This result will provide useful information to managers, policy makers in term of evaluating climate change impact on land use in the future for making adaptation measures as well as planning strategies to protect agricultural land for ensuring food security and livelihoods in this study area.