Abstract

A series of studies was conducted to elucidate a phenomenon here referred to as the "illusion of control. " An illusion of control was denned as an ex-pectancy of a personal success probability inappropriately higher than the ob-jective probability would warrant. It was predicted that factors from skill situa-tions (competition, choice, familiarity, involvement) introduced into chance situations cause individuals to feel inappropriately confident. In Study 1 sub-jects cut cards against either a confident or a nervous competitor; in Study 2 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of ticket; in Study 3 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of either familiar or unfamiliar lottery tickets; in Study 4, in a novel chance game, subjects either had or did not have practice and responded either themselves or by proxy; in Study 5 lottery participants at a racetrack were asked their confidence at different times; finally, in Study 6 lottery participants either received a single three-digit ticket or one digit on each of 3 days. Indicators of confidence in all six studies sup-ported the prediction.