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...ance ofsCPRs, particularly for forest resources in Nepal under varying social and biophysicalsconditions. These studies have reinforced the importance of Ostrom’s design principlessfor managing CPRs (=-=Ostrom, 1990-=-), as well as common property institutions, group size,sheterogeneity, and the presence of collective action (see, e.g., Agrawal & Gupta, 2005;sGautam, 2007; Gautam & Shivakoti, 2005; Chakraborty, 200...

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...actors, (d)ssocial or other interactions that affect their attributes or decisions, and (e)s80sfeedback mechanisms that can produce nonlinear system behaviors (p. 3;ssee. e.g., Axelrod & Cohen, 1999; =-=Holland, 1995-=-; Waldrop, 1992).sAgent-based models (ABM) allow users to conceptualize these ideas by examining howsindividual agents in a system (e.g., villages in Bachauli) are influenced differently by,sand adapt...

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...versally correlated to their depletions(Agrawal, 1995). On the contrary, some studies suggest that an increase in population canslead to technological advancements, which can mitigate resources loss (=-=Boserup, 1965-=-;sPoteete & Ostrom, 2004). The consequences of population growth are complicated, andsmany studies conducted in Nepal and elsewhere argue that there is no connectionsbetween population growth and fore...

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...cape-levelsecological systems—such as forests—function are invariably complex. When thesinteractions between human and natural systems are incorporated into one model, the tasksis especially complex (=-=Berkes et al., 1998-=-; Berkes et al., 2003; Couclelis, 2001;sNorgaard, 1994). Using survey data in ABM, such as we have done here, requires makingsthe assumption that upscaling survey results from the sample that was coll...

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... systems—such as forests—function are invariably complex. When thesinteractions between human and natural systems are incorporated into one model, the tasksis especially complex (Berkes et al., 1998; =-=Berkes et al., 2003-=-; Couclelis, 2001;sNorgaard, 1994). Using survey data in ABM, such as we have done here, requires makingsthe assumption that upscaling survey results from the sample that was collected will besreprese...

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...ing programs with other researchers for verificationspurposes. Independent replication is another important practice to detect and correctserrors and check the robustness of findings” (Axelrod, 1997; =-=Axtell et al., 1996-=-; Miller,s2015; Wilensky & Rand, 2007).sACKNOWLEDGMENTSsThanks to Timothy Waring for his ABM expertise and mentoring, and Jessica Leahy andsEmily Silver for their invaluable contributions and assistan...

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...ich established the government’s ownership of all forested land insthe country. The Act, which was implemented to ensure that the state had completescontrol of the country’s commercial timber market (=-=Agrawal & Ribot, 1999-=-; Jones,s2007), was adopted to usurp control of privately owned forests and lands following thescollapse of the Rana regime in 1951. Privatized ownership ceased and control was placedsin the hands of ...

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...r hinder the innovativeness, learning, adapting,strustworthiness, levels of cooperation of participants, and the achievementsof more effective, equitable, and sustainable outcomes at multiple scaless(=-=Ostrom, 2010-=-, p. 664-5).sLITERATURE CITEDsCohen, J. M., & Uphoff, N. T. (1980). Participation’s place in rural development: seekingsclarity through specificity. World Development, 8(3), 213–235.shttp://doi.org/10...

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...rovide a model for other efforts to conserve forest resources in Nepal and elsewhere.s8sINTRODUCTIONsTropical forests are being cleared, converted and degraded on a global scale (Achard etsal., 2002; =-=Hansen et al., 2013-=-). Forests, which today cover roughly one-quarter of Nepal,shave witnessed a long history of decline and degradation due to rising humanspopulations, agricultural expansion, and timber harvest. The co...

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...omplexity theory, human decision-making, cooperation, and demographic andssocioeconomic influences on behavior (see e.g., An, 2012; An & Liu, 2010; An et al.,s2005; An et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2007; =-=Matthews et al., 2007-=-; Riolo et al., 2001; Waringset al., 2015).sHere, we create an ABM to examine what effect village attitudes toward forestsconservation have on the future landscape and condition of forest cover if imp...

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...ng climate variables, imperfections in model designsand construction (Collins et al., 2006), the use of downscaling methods, and the internals115svariability of climate systems (Agarwal et al., 2014; =-=Hawkins & Sutton, 2011-=-; Hu et al.,s2013), the use of simplified and/or fixed models (Darbyshire et al., 2014), and because ofsuncertainty regarding nonlinear species behavior in response to change (Nelson et al.,s2014).sTh...

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...crete to thesextent that it reflects details in the social process and isolated to the extents109sthat it reduces such details in order to focus on particular causalsmechanisms (Miller, 2015, p. 179; =-=Windrum et al., 2007-=-).sModeling Policy ChangesFor a myriad of reasons, predicting how local attitudes toward LULCC decisions willschange if improved resource-related policies are implemented is difficult. In the contexts...

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...ndeed, under various ecological and social conditions,sdecentralized community-level forest management has shown promise in reversing forestsloss and degradation in Nepal (see e.g. Chakraborty, 2001; =-=Agrawal & Gupta, 2005-=-;sGautam & Shivakoti, 2005; Nagendra et al., 2005; Gautam, 2007; Gurung et al., 2013).sModern community forestry in Nepal, however, began only after a long history ofspolitical instability and rigid a...

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...ve. While uncertainty to some degree is unavoidable regarding both climateschange modeling and ABM, climate change impact projections are especially uncertain atssmaller, local scales (Devkota, 2014; =-=Marin, 2010-=-), which poses challenges forsincorporating this as a parameter in our model.sCONCLUSIONsFrom the literature, it is clear that ABM is a pragmatic and effective tool withsinnumerable scientific applica...

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...hese ways to enhance our understanding of coupled human and naturalssystems, complexity theory, human decision-making, cooperation, and demographic andssocioeconomic influences on behavior (see e.g., =-=An, 2012-=-; An & Liu, 2010; An et al.,s2005; An et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2007; Matthews et al., 2007; Riolo et al., 2001; Waringset al., 2015).sHere, we create an ABM to examine what effect village attitudes t...

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... supports the use ofsABM to model the effects that policies might have on coupled human and naturalssystems (see e.g., Berger, 2005; Lempert, 2002; Zellner et al., 2008), forest managementsscenarios (=-=Purnomo et al., 2005-=-; Villino, 2014), socio-demographic variables in Nepals(Janmaat & Lapp, 2014; Zvoleff & An, 2014), the effects of perceptions and decisionsmaking in coupled human and natural systems (Wandersee et al....

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...ological and social conditions,sdecentralized community-level forest management has shown promise in reversing forestsloss and degradation in Nepal (see e.g. Chakraborty, 2001; Agrawal & Gupta, 2005;s=-=Gautam & Shivakoti, 2005-=-; Nagendra et al., 2005; Gautam, 2007; Gurung et al., 2013).sModern community forestry in Nepal, however, began only after a long history ofspolitical instability and rigid and hierarchical centralize...

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... population of 1.3 billion people downstream (Molden &sSharma, 2013; Uddin et al., 2015)—has witnessed substantial land use/land cover changes(LULCC), which can lead to changes in ecosystem services (=-=Koschke et al., 2012-=-; Uddinset al., 2015). To Nepal’s rural poor, especially in the Terai region, forests are ansimportant part of everyday life. Because rural communities comprise the majority ofsNepal’s population, the...

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...icy, the Nepali government stated that “protection, maintenance, andsdevelopment of forests scattered all over the kingdom is neither possible nor evens11spractical through government efforts alone” (=-=Bajracharya, 1983-=-, p. 234). Henceforth,sdecentralized natural resource management was official policy. Nepal, like many othersstruggling, developing countries, devolved power from centralized control to citizens insan...

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...st campfires but also banned all felling of trees by Sherpas and enforcedsthe new regulations with an army 'protection unit'” (Stevens, 2003, p. 258 citing Stevens,s1983; Brower 1991a; Brower, 1991b; =-=Stevens, 1993-=-; Stevens, 1997; Brower & Dennis,s1998). Baral & Heinen (2007) also found that the establishment of protected areas insNepal’s Terai region alienated local populations and reduced much-needed access t...

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...ines of 1999, were implemented “for the design of programsscompatible with national park management and to facilitate public participation in thesconservation, design and management of buffer zones” (=-=Budhathoki, 2004-=-, p. 335 citingsHMGN, 2002). CNP’s buffer zone includes approximately 750 km2 and is home to moresthan 300,000 people (Stræde & Treue, 2006). In part, buffer zones were established tosmitigate anthrop...

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...’s 4th Amendment, passed in 1993, officially designated a buffer zone aroundsChitwan National Park (CNP) and gave limited rights to inhabitants to manage forestsstherein (Spiteri & Nepal, 2008 citing =-=Heinen & Mehta, 2000-=-; Nepal & Weber, 1995). ThesAct implemented official buffer zone policies for those living around CNP to helpsaddress problems with resource management in and around the park. For example, ins1993, th...

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... ansimportant part of everyday life. Because rural communities comprise the majority ofsNepal’s population, they play an important role in the nation’s overall social, human, andsbiophysical systems (=-=Bohra & Massey, 2009-=-). The buffer zone (BZ) VillagesDevelopment Committees (VDCs) surrounding Chitwan National Park (CNP) are at thesforestry and agriculture epicenter of Nepal. Those living here primarily engage inssubs...

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...ark authorities announced new policies in 1979 that notsonly banned tourist campfires but also banned all felling of trees by Sherpas and enforcedsthe new regulations with an army 'protection unit'” (=-=Stevens, 2003-=-, p. 258 citing Stevens,s1983; Brower 1991a; Brower, 1991b; Stevens, 1993; Stevens, 1997; Brower & Dennis,s1998). Baral & Heinen (2007) also found that the establishment of protected areas insNepal’s ...

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...been increasingly utilized to study social ecological systems (SES)sand LULLC such as deforestation (see e.g., Evans and Kelley, 2004; Lambin et al., 2003;sMena et al., 2011; Veldkamp & Lambin, 2001; =-=Walsh et al., 2008-=-). Simon Levin (1998;s1999; 2003) describes ecosystems as multi-level, nonlinear, complex adaptive systemss(CAS) in which evolutionary forces at lower, individual levels produce emergent patternssat h...

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...rk explored the effectiveness of decentralized approachessto CPR management in Nepal, as well as similar initiatives in other parts of the worlds(see e.g. Ostrom et al., 1993; Agrawal & Ostrom, 2001; =-=Shivakoti & Ostrom, 2002-=-;sAndersson & Ostrom, 2008). The importance of institutional structure has since beenswidely discussed in the human dimensions of natural resource management andseconomics literature. Indeed, under va...

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...and control over forest managementscreated distrust between forest users and government forest-sector institutions – ascondition that persists (Pandit & Bevilacqua, 2011a; Pandit & Bevilacqua, 2011b;s=-=Shrestha & McManus, 2007-=-).sToday, there are 1.7 million hectares of community forest – about 29% of allsforests in Nepal. These forests support approximately 2.25 million households (GoN,s2014). Although community forestry h...

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...his, there are parameters which were either not included or could besimproved upon if more reliable data were available.sDeveloping countries—including those in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH)sregion (=-=Bajracharya et al., 2010-=-, Uddin et al., 2015)—are commonly faced with complexsLULCC challenges and quite often lack empirical, reliable sources of information andsdata needed to evaluate alternative policies (Saqalli et al.,...

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...13),showever, few studies have examined the consequences of forest conservation, as well assother initiatives, on LULCC in Nepal (Uddin et al., 2015).sThe mechanisms behind deforestation are complex (=-=Bhattarai et al., 2009-=-;sEhrhardt-Martinez, 1998; Henderson-Sellers & Gornitz, 1984; Fearnside, 1985;sMalanson et al., 2006; Richards & Tucker, 1988; Rolfe et al., 2000). Incorporatingscomplexity theory has been increasingl...

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...ayani, however, was comprised of a handful of wealthier men andsappeared to poorly represent the overall demographics of the area — a problem viewedsby some studies as widespread in Nepal (see, e.g., =-=Chhetri et al., 2012-=-; Lund et al., 2014;sMalla et al., 2003).sCONCLUSIONsAlthough this study was conducted in a small area of Nepal, it examined communitiessexperiencing some of the highest and lowest rates of forest deg...

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...ion into the complexsfunctionality of social systems by examining how heterogeneous and boundedly rationalsindividuals interact and adapt in a simulated, parameterized world (see e.g., Epstein,s2006; =-=Epstein, 2009-=-; Epstein & Axtell, 1996). In recent years, ABM has increasinglysbeen used in these ways to enhance our understanding of coupled human and naturalssystems, complexity theory, human decision-making, co...

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...the national per capita income of $718 USD (Sharma et al., 2014). Thesaverage household size is 7.1, with 48% of people being of working age, and 41% understhe age of 15 (Stræde & Treue, 2006, citing =-=Banskota et al., 1996-=-).sSurvey Design and DevelopmentsWe used a purposive sampling approach (Mahat, 2009; Tashakkori & Teddie, 1998) tosbetter understand how household attitudes toward forest conservation-related behavior...

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...tiatives, on LULCC in Nepal (Uddin et al., 2015).sThe mechanisms behind deforestation are complex (Bhattarai et al., 2009;sEhrhardt-Martinez, 1998; Henderson-Sellers & Gornitz, 1984; Fearnside, 1985;s=-=Malanson et al., 2006-=-; Richards & Tucker, 1988; Rolfe et al., 2000). Incorporatingscomplexity theory has been increasingly utilized to study social ecological systems (SES)sand LULLC such as deforestation (see e.g., Evans...

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...nge (Ojha et al.,s2015). Agricultural production in Nepal, and overall food security on a global scale, isshighly susceptible to climate change (Bhatt et al., 2014; Malla, 2008; Olesen & Bindi,s2002; =-=Palazzoli et al., 2015-=-; Parry et al., 2004), and ecological factors, landscapesdiversity, and social instability in Nepal make the country particularly at-risk (see e.g.,sAryal, 2011; Bharati et al., 2014; Chhetri & Nyaupa...

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...t also banned all felling of trees by Sherpas and enforcedsthe new regulations with an army 'protection unit'” (Stevens, 2003, p. 258 citing Stevens,s1983; Brower 1991a; Brower, 1991b; Stevens, 1993; =-=Stevens, 1997-=-; Brower & Dennis,s1998). Baral & Heinen (2007) also found that the establishment of protected areas insNepal’s Terai region alienated local populations and reduced much-needed access tos31sresources....

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...be. Despite this generalsfinding, household characteristics, attitudes, and socio-demographic variables ofsstakeholders involved have not been closely examined in community forestry systems insNepal (=-=Acharya et al., 2004-=-; Adhikari et al., 2004). Because community forestry has beensestablished in Nepal for a relatively longer time than most countries, it provides an idealslocation to study household perceptions (Adhik...

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...ses, naturally-occurring climate variables, imperfections in model designsand construction (Collins et al., 2006), the use of downscaling methods, and the internals115svariability of climate systems (=-=Agarwal et al., 2014-=-; Hawkins & Sutton, 2011; Hu et al.,s2013), the use of simplified and/or fixed models (Darbyshire et al., 2014), and because ofsuncertainty regarding nonlinear species behavior in response to change (...

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...ageau & Frayret,s2015; Villino, 2014), population dynamics (e.g., Graciani Rodrigues et al., 2015;sMudimu & Engelbrecht, 2015; Wurzer et al., 2015), and agent cooperation (i.e., mimicneighbors; e.g., =-=Bausch, 2014-=-; Bristow et al., 2014; Campennì & Schino, 2014; Wunderset al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2015). Although the data used for this model were empiricallyderived, modeling human behavior is a complex and chall...

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... & Bindi,s2002; Palazzoli et al., 2015; Parry et al., 2004), and ecological factors, landscapesdiversity, and social instability in Nepal make the country particularly at-risk (see e.g.,sAryal, 2011; =-=Bharati et al., 2014-=-; Chhetri & Nyaupanea, 2009; Eriksson et al., 2009;sKarki & Gurung, 2012; NCVST, 2009; Maskey et al., 2011; Palazzoli et al., 2015; Rai,s2007). Uddin et al. (2015) states that:sClimate change impacts,...

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...allsNepalese live. While uncertainty to some degree is unavoidable regarding both climateschange modeling and ABM, climate change impact projections are especially uncertain atssmaller, local scales (=-=Devkota, 2014-=-; Marin, 2010), which poses challenges forsincorporating this as a parameter in our model.sCONCLUSIONsFrom the literature, it is clear that ABM is a pragmatic and effective tool withsinnumerable scien...

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...cies in-places(Agrawal & Ostrom, 2006; Hayes & Ostrom 2005).sSES have been classified as: (1) nonlinear, which produces uncertainty (Berkes etsal., 2003);(2) self-organized, which produces emergence (=-=Garmestani, 2014-=-; Levin et al.,s2013); and (3) complex adapting systems (Berkes et al., 1998; Holland, 1992; Holland,s1995; Levin et al., 2013), which makes modeling policy effectiveness difficult (Levin etsal., 2013...

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... literature supports the submodels used in this model,si.e., policy analysis (e.g., Florent & Enrico, 2015; Salle, 2015; Sauvageau & Frayret,s2015; Villino, 2014), population dynamics (e.g., Graciani =-=Rodrigues et al., 2015-=-;sMudimu & Engelbrecht, 2015; Wurzer et al., 2015), and agent cooperation (i.e., mimicneighbors; e.g., Bausch, 2014; Bristow et al., 2014; Campennì & Schino, 2014; Wunderset al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2...

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...arding dead-wood (fuel-wood) use (Christensen et al., 2009), data aboutsthe social inclusiveness of Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs) in terms ofs107smarginalized classes and revenue distribution (=-=Khadka et al., 2014-=-), and national forestscover data (DFRS/FRA, 2014; FAO, 2009).sAlthough institutions and researchers are continually acquiring new data (Singh etsal., 2011), the HKH region is still considered data de...

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... submodels used in this model,si.e., policy analysis (e.g., Florent & Enrico, 2015; Salle, 2015; Sauvageau & Frayret,s2015; Villino, 2014), population dynamics (e.g., Graciani Rodrigues et al., 2015;s=-=Mudimu & Engelbrecht, 2015-=-; Wurzer et al., 2015), and agent cooperation (i.e., mimicneighbors; e.g., Bausch, 2014; Bristow et al., 2014; Campennì & Schino, 2014; Wunderset al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2015). Although the data used...

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...y insdecentralized management authority of forests in their communities. Rural communitiesshave been using traditional methods for managing natural resources such as forests forslong periods of time (=-=Nagendra & Ostrom, 2007-=-), and when considering policy changes,sthese experiences should be taken into careful consideration by policy-makers (Shivakotis& Ostrom, 2008).sRegardless of whether a new policy is aimed at improvi...

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... for marginalized groups such as women (Adhikari et al., 2014).sAlthough women participate in most forest management tasks, they are typically notsincluded in decision-making processes (Khadka, 2010; =-=Poudel et al., 2014-=-).sCommunity forestry in Nepal has the potential to contribute to social capital insmany forms such as new schools, academic scholarships for children from marginalizedsgroups, and new roads (Gautam, ...

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...lculated for the years 1989, 2005, and 2013 to explore changes in forest cover overstime. The United Nations’ collaborative initiative on Reducing Emissions fromsDeforestation and forest Degradation (=-=REDD, 2014-=-) estimated that overall forest loss insNepal fell to zero percent annually between 2005 and 2010. Additionally, a 10-yearsMaoist civil war in Nepal ended in 2006, greatly reducing political and socia...

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...g et al., 2015). Although the data used for this model were empiricallyderived, modeling human behavior is a complex and challenging task (Couclelis, 2001;sLangevin et al., 2015; Parker et al., 2002; =-=Smajgl & Barreteau, 2013-=-; Turkay et al.,s2011). ABMs are intended to be simplified representations of a real-world system, withsboundedly rational agents (Epstein, 1999; Railsback & Grimm, 2012). However, thescomplexity of m...

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...nd, increased clearing for agriculture made more land available for migrantssfrom less-productive regions of the country (Pravat, 2006).sToday, forests cover approximately 25.4% of the country (World =-=Bank, 2013-=-) andsthere are 1.7 million ha of community forest—about 29% of all forests in Nepal andssupporting approximately 2.25 million households (GoN, 2014). Although communitysforestry has been highly influ...