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524
The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence
 JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE
, 1996
"... Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward ..."
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Cited by 400 (11 self)
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Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfoliobalance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.
An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis
 Cambridge University
, 1999
"... This paper examines the use of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for the analysis of longrun relations when the underlying variables are I(1). It shows that after appropriate augmentation of the order of the ARDL model, the OLS estimators of the shortrun parameters are p Tconsistent wi ..."
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Cited by 393 (6 self)
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This paper examines the use of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for the analysis of longrun relations when the underlying variables are I(1). It shows that after appropriate augmentation of the order of the ARDL model, the OLS estimators of the shortrun parameters are p Tconsistent with the asymptotically singular covariance matrix, and the ARDLbased estimators of the longrun coe¢cients are superconsistent, and valid inferences on the longrun parameters can be made using standard normal asymptotic theory. The paper also examines the relationship between the ARDL procedure and the fully modi…ed OLS approach of Phillips and Hansen to estimation of cointegrating relations, and compares the small sample performance of these two approaches via Monte Carlo experiments. These results provide strong evidence in favour of a rehabilitation of the traditional ARDL approach to time series econometric modelling. The ARDL approach has the additional advantage of yielding consistent estimates of the longrun coe¢cients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(1) or I(0).
Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns
 THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI, NO. 3 • JUNE 2001
, 2001
"... This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treas ..."
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Cited by 321 (23 self)
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This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth ~human capital plus asset holdings! ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and
Testing ContinuousTime Models of the Spot Interest Rate
 Review of Financial Studies
, 1996
"... Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are rec ..."
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Cited by 310 (9 self)
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Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are recorded at discrete intervals. The principal source of rejection of existing models is the strong nonlinearity of the drift. Around its mean, where the drift is essentially zero, the spot rate behaves like a random walk. The drift then meanreverts strongly when far away from the mean. The volatility is higher when away from the mean. The continuoustime financial theory has developed extensive tools to price derivative securities when the underlying traded asset(s) or nontraded factor(s) follow stochastic differential equations [see Merton (1990) for examples]. However, as a practical matter, how to specify an appropriate stochastic differential equation is for the most part an unanswered question. For example, many different continuoustime The comments and suggestions of Kerry Back (the editor) and an anonymous referee were very helpful. I am also grateful to George Constantinides,
Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A CrossSectional Test When Risk Premia Are TimeVarying
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2001
"... This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditio ..."
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Cited by 246 (10 self)
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This paper explores the ability of conditional versions of the CAPM and the consumption CAPM—jointly the (C)CAPM—to explain the cross section of average stock returns. Central to our approach is the use of the log consumption–wealth ratio as a conditioning variable. We demonstrate that such conditional models perform far better than unconditional specifications and about as well as the FamaFrench threefactor model on portfolios sorted by size and booktomarket characteristics. The conditional consumption CAPM can account for the difference in returns between lowbooktomarket and highbooktomarket portfolios and exhibits little evidence of residual size or booktomarket effects. We are grateful to Eugene Fama and Kenneth French for graciously providing the
Errorcorrection Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Singleequation Framework
 Journal of Times Series Analysis
, 1998
"... Abstract. A new test is proposed for cointegration in a single equation framework where the regressors are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest. The test is denoted as an error correction mechanism (ECM) test and is based upon the ordinary least squares coef®cient of the lagged dependent ..."
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Cited by 175 (2 self)
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Abstract. A new test is proposed for cointegration in a single equation framework where the regressors are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest. The test is denoted as an error correction mechanism (ECM) test and is based upon the ordinary least squares coef®cient of the lagged dependent variable in an autoregressive distributed lag model augmented with leads of the regressors. The limit distributions of the standardized coef®cient and t ratio versions of the ECM tests are obtained and critical values are provided. These limit distributions do not depend upon nuisance parameters but they depend on the number of regressors. Finally, we compare their power properties with those of other cointegration tests available in the literature and ®nd the circumstances under which the ECM tests have a better performance.
On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data
 CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH, SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY
, 1999
"... In this paper, we study the asymptotic distributions for leastsquares (OLS), fully modi ed (FM), and dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimators in cointegrated regression models in panel data. We show that the OLS, FM, and DOLS estimators are all asymptotically normally distributed. However, the asymptotic dist ..."
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Cited by 141 (5 self)
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In this paper, we study the asymptotic distributions for leastsquares (OLS), fully modi ed (FM), and dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimators in cointegrated regression models in panel data. We show that the OLS, FM, and DOLS estimators are all asymptotically normally distributed. However, the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator is shown to have a nonzero mean. Monte Carlo results examine the sampling behavior of the proposed estimators and show that (1) the OLS estimator has a nonnegligible bias in nite samples, (2) the FM estimator does not improve over the OLS estimator in general, and (3) the DOLS outperforms both the OLS and FM estimators.
Avoiding Liquidity Traps
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2002
"... Once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account, Taylortype interest rate feedback rules give rise to unintended selffulfilling decelerating inflation paths and aggregate fluctuations driven by arbitrary revisions in expectations. These undesirable equilibria exhibit the essenti ..."
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Cited by 106 (12 self)
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Once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account, Taylortype interest rate feedback rules give rise to unintended selffulfilling decelerating inflation paths and aggregate fluctuations driven by arbitrary revisions in expectations. These undesirable equilibria exhibit the essential features of liquidity traps since monetary policy is ineffective in bringing about the government’s goals regarding the stability of output and prices. This paper proposes several fiscal and monetary policies that preserve the appealing features of Taylor rules, such as local uniqueness of equilibrium near the inflation target, and at the same time rule out the deflationary expectations that can lead an economy into a liquidity trap. We wish to thank Mike Woodford for many very helpful comments and suggestions on Benhabib, SchmittGrohé, and Uribe (2001b) at the 1999 NBER Summer Institute, which led to the writing of this paper and on which our analysis is based. We are also grateful to John Cochrane, the editor, and three anonymous referees for very helpful comments
Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and LongRun Money Demand
 Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
, 2003
"... We study the panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator of a homogeneous cointegration vector for a balanced panel of N individuals observed over T time periods. Allowable heterogeneity across individuals include individualspecific time trends, individualspecific fixed effects and times ..."
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Cited by 92 (0 self)
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We study the panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator of a homogeneous cointegration vector for a balanced panel of N individuals observed over T time periods. Allowable heterogeneity across individuals include individualspecific time trends, individualspecific fixed effects and timespecific effects. The estimator is fully parametric, computationally convenient, and more precise than the single equation estimator. For fixed N as T fi 1, the estimator converges to a function of Brownian motions and the Wald statistic for testing a set of s linear constraints has a limiting v2(s) distribution. The estimator also has a Gaussian sequential limit distribution that is obtained first by letting T fi 1 and then letting N fi 1. In a series of MonteCarlo experiments, we find that the asymptotic distribution theory provides a reasonably close approximation to the exact finite sample distribution. We use panel DOLS to estimate coefficients of the longrun money demand function from a panel of 19 countries with annual observations that span from 1957 to 1996. The estimated income elasticity is 1.08 (asymptotic s.e. 0.26) and the estimated interest rate semielasticity is)0.02 (asymptotic s.e. 0.01). *This paper was previously circulated under the title ‘A Computationally Simple Cointegration