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Towards predictive simulation of wildfire spread using a reducedcost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on Polynomial Chaos approximation
"... The sequential correction of a fire spread model parameters is performed via the assimilation of airbornelike fire front observations in order to improve the simulation and forecast of the fire propagation. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is applied to reduce uncertainties in the atmospheric and v ..."
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The sequential correction of a fire spread model parameters is performed via the assimilation of airbornelike fire front observations in order to improve the simulation and forecast of the fire propagation. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is applied to reduce uncertainties in the atmospheric and vegetation parameters for the Rate Of Spread (ROS) model. The nonlinear relation between the parameters and the fire front position induced by the nonlinearities of the fire spread is described stochastically over the EnKF members. In order to reduce the computational cost of the data assimilation algorithm, a surrogate model based on a Polynomial Chaos (PC) approximation is used in place of the forward propagation model. The merits of using the EnKF algorithm based on the PC approximation are highlighted in experiments using synthetical and real measurements. 1.
ON THE CONVERGENCE OF THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER
"... Abstract. Convergence of the ensemble Kalman filter in the limit for large ensembles to the Kalman filter is proved. In each step of the filter, convergence of the ensemble sample covariance follows from a weak law of large numbers for exchangeable random variables, Slutsky’s theorem gives weak conv ..."
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Abstract. Convergence of the ensemble Kalman filter in the limit for large ensembles to the Kalman filter is proved. In each step of the filter, convergence of the ensemble sample covariance follows from a weak law of large numbers for exchangeable random variables, Slutsky’s theorem gives weak convergence of ensemble members, and L p bounds on the ensemble then give L p convergence.
Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduction
, 2015
"... This is an excerpt from the forthcoming book Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduc ..."
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This is an excerpt from the forthcoming book Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduc