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Probability: Theory and examples
 CAMBRIDGE U PRESS
, 2011
"... Some times the lights are shining on me. Other times I can barely see. Lately it occurs to me what a long strange trip its been. Grateful Dead In 1989 when the first edition of the book was completed, my sons David and Greg were 3 and 1, and the cover picture showed the Dow Jones at 2650. The last t ..."
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Cited by 1331 (16 self)
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twenty years have brought many changes but the song remains the same. The title of the book indicates that as we develop the theory, we will focus our attention on examples. Hoping that the book would be a useful reference for people who apply probability in their work, we have tried to emphasize
Approximating discrete probability distributions with dependence trees
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY
, 1968
"... A method is presented to approximate optimally an ndimensional discrete probability distribution by a product of secondorder distributions, or the distribution of the firstorder tree dependence. The problem is to find an optimum set of n1 first order dependence relationship among the n variables ..."
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Cited by 881 (0 self)
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A method is presented to approximate optimally an ndimensional discrete probability distribution by a product of secondorder distributions, or the distribution of the firstorder tree dependence. The problem is to find an optimum set of n1 first order dependence relationship among the n
Where the REALLY Hard Problems Are
 IN J. MYLOPOULOS AND R. REITER (EDS.), PROCEEDINGS OF 12TH INTERNATIONAL JOINT CONFERENCE ON AI (IJCAI91),VOLUME 1
, 1991
"... It is well known that for many NPcomplete problems, such as KSat, etc., typical cases are easy to solve; so that computationally hard cases must be rare (assuming P != NP). This paper shows that NPcomplete problems can be summarized by at least one "order parameter", and that the hard p ..."
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Cited by 683 (1 self)
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problems occur at a critical value of such a parameter. This critical value separates two regions of characteristically different properties. For example, for Kcolorability, the critical value separates overconstrained from underconstrained random graphs, and it marks the value at which the probability
of Interval Probability Problems
"... In many reallife situations, we only have partial information about probabilities. This information is usually described by bounds on moments, on probabilities of certain events, etc. – i.e., by characteristics c(p) which are linear in terms of the unknown probabilities pj. If we know interval boun ..."
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bounds on some such characteristics a i ≤ ci(p) ≤ ai, and we are interested in a characteristic c(p), then we can find the bounds on c(p) by solving a linear programming problem. In some situations, we also have additional conditions on the probability distribution – e.g., we may know that the two
Proof verification and hardness of approximation problems
 IN PROC. 33RD ANN. IEEE SYMP. ON FOUND. OF COMP. SCI
, 1992
"... We show that every language in NP has a probablistic verifier that checks membership proofs for it using logarithmic number of random bits and by examining a constant number of bits in the proof. If a string is in the language, then there exists a proof such that the verifier accepts with probabilit ..."
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Cited by 797 (39 self)
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with probability 1 (i.e., for every choice of its random string). For strings not in the language, the verifier rejects every provided “proof " with probability at least 1/2. Our result builds upon and improves a recent result of Arora and Safra [6] whose verifiers examine a nonconstant number of bits
The Vocabulary Problem in HumanSystem Communication
 COMMUNICATIONS OF THE ACM
, 1987
"... In almost all computer applications, users must enter correct words for the desired objects or actions. For success without extensive training, or in firsttries for new targets, the system must recognize terms that will be chosen spontaneously. We studied spontaneous word choice for objects in five ..."
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Cited by 562 (8 self)
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in five applicationrelated domains, and found the variability to be surprisingly large. In every case two people favored the same term with probability <0.20. Simulations show how this fundamental property of language limits the success of various design methodologies for vocabularydriven interaction
Estimation of probabilities from sparse data for the language model component of a speech recognizer
 IEEE Transactions on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing
, 1987
"... AbstractThe description of a novel type of rngram language model is given. The model offers, via a nonlinear recursive procedure, a computation and space efficient solution to the problem of estimating probabilities from sparse data. This solution compares favorably to other proposed methods. Wh ..."
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Cited by 799 (2 self)
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AbstractThe description of a novel type of rngram language model is given. The model offers, via a nonlinear recursive procedure, a computation and space efficient solution to the problem of estimating probabilities from sparse data. This solution compares favorably to other proposed methods
Solving multiclass learning problems via errorcorrecting output codes
 JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
, 1995
"... Multiclass learning problems involve nding a de nition for an unknown function f(x) whose range is a discrete set containing k>2values (i.e., k \classes"). The de nition is acquired by studying collections of training examples of the form hx i;f(x i)i. Existing approaches to multiclass l ..."
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Cited by 726 (8 self)
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Multiclass learning problems involve nding a de nition for an unknown function f(x) whose range is a discrete set containing k>2values (i.e., k \classes"). The de nition is acquired by studying collections of training examples of the form hx i;f(x i)i. Existing approaches to multiclass
Probabilistic PartofSpeech Tagging Using Decision Trees
, 1994
"... In this paper, a new probabilistic tagging method is presented which avoids problems that Markov Model based taggers face, when they have to estimate transition probabilities from sparse data. In this tagging method, transition probabilities are estimated using a decision tree. Based on this method, ..."
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Cited by 1058 (9 self)
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In this paper, a new probabilistic tagging method is presented which avoids problems that Markov Model based taggers face, when they have to estimate transition probabilities from sparse data. In this tagging method, transition probabilities are estimated using a decision tree. Based on this method
Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference
, 2008
"... The formalism of probabilistic graphical models provides a unifying framework for capturing complex dependencies among random variables, and building largescale multivariate statistical models. Graphical models have become a focus of research in many statistical, computational and mathematical fiel ..."
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Cited by 819 (28 self)
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of probability distributions — are best studied in the general setting. Working with exponential family representations, and exploiting the conjugate duality between the cumulant function and the entropy for exponential families, we develop general variational representations of the problems of computing
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