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Ination Forecasting with Phillips Curves

by Kenneth Dencker Petersen, Name Kenneth, Dencker Petersen, Univariate Models , 2009
"... In this thesis I wish to model and forecast ination in both univariate and multivariate settings. One of the major intensions is to estimate and forecast Phillips curves relations and to test predictive performance of modern Phillips curve relations over the classical relation and as well compare to ..."
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In this thesis I wish to model and forecast ination in both univariate and multivariate settings. One of the major intensions is to estimate and forecast Phillips curves relations and to test predictive performance of modern Phillips curve relations over the classical relation and as well compare

The Phillips curve in Thailand ¤

by Kanyarat Bhanthumnavin , 2002
"... The subject of this paper is the estimation of the Phillips curve in Thailand. The aim of the estimation is to …t the Phillips curve as part of a small-scale, log-linearised structural model for the country, which is suitable to form the basis for a future simulation exercise to …nd an optimum monet ..."
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The subject of this paper is the estimation of the Phillips curve in Thailand. The aim of the estimation is to …t the Phillips curve as part of a small-scale, log-linearised structural model for the country, which is suitable to form the basis for a future simulation exercise to …nd an optimum

A PHILLIPS CURVE FOR CHINA

by Jörg Scheibe A, David Vines B , 2005
"... This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate traditional backward-looking as well as partially forward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly data from 1988 to 2002, ..."
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This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate traditional backward-looking as well as partially forward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly data from 1988 to 2002

An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve

by Marika Karanassou, Dennis J. Snower , 2002
"... The paper examines how the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff depends on the degree to which wage-price decisions are backward- versus forward-looking. When economic agents, facing time-contingent, staggered nominal contracts, have a positive rate of time preference, the current wage and price ..."
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and price levels depend more heavily on past variables (e.g. past wages and prices) than on future variables. Consequently, the long-run Phillips curve becomes downward-sloping and, indeed, quit flat for plausible parameter values. This paper provides an intuitive account of how this long-run Phillips curve

Keynes and the “Keynesian” Phillips Curve

by Robert Leeson, A. J. Brown, Graeme Dorrance, Peter Kenyon, Ray Petridis, Leslie Pressnell, An Anony - History of Political Economy , 1999
"... This article attempts to correct some terminological inexactitude by marshalling evidence in favor of two related propositions. The first is that the policy of tolerating ongoing inflation in the hope of sustainably reducing unemployment should properly be called pseudo-Keynesian. The second proposi ..."
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proposition is that the policy of increasing unemployment in the hope of obtaining benefits with respect to inflation should prop-erly be called anti-Keynesian. The collapse of the Keynesian Phillips curve was, therefore, a failure of old Keynesian economics, but not a failure of the economics of John Maynard

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

by James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson - Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy , 2009
"... This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and empirical r ..."
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results are gloomy and indicate that Phillips curve forecasts (broadly interpreted as forecasts using an activity variable) are better than other multivariate forecasts, but their performance is episodic, sometimes better than and sometimes worse than a good (not naïve) univariate benchmark. We provide

The Modern Phillips Curve Revisited

by Jinpeng Ma , 2014
"... The modern Phillips curve is about the relationship between the average rates of inflation and unemployment. We will provide additional empirical evidence in the US economy from 1948:01 to 2013:03 that helps demonstrate why such a relationship has been built on a wrong methodology, as revealed in Ma ..."
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The modern Phillips curve is about the relationship between the average rates of inflation and unemployment. We will provide additional empirical evidence in the US economy from 1948:01 to 2013:03 that helps demonstrate why such a relationship has been built on a wrong methodology, as revealed

A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation

by Mark Gertler, John Leahy - Journal of Political Economy , 2008
"... We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We differ from the existing literature by considering a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introducing idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variant of the convent ..."
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We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We differ from the existing literature by considering a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introducing idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variant

The Early History of the Phillips Curve

by Thomas M. Humphrey - Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond , 1985
"... Although critics may dismiss it as a mere empirical correlation masquerading as a tradeoff, the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment has nevertheless been a key component of macroeconomic models for the past 25 years. In 1960 Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow [16, p. 192] nam ..."
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Although critics may dismiss it as a mere empirical correlation masquerading as a tradeoff, the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment has nevertheless been a key component of macroeconomic models for the past 25 years. In 1960 Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow [16, p. 192

THE DEATH OF THE PHILLIPS CURVE RECONSIDERED

by Roger E. Brinner
"... I. A summary of the debate, 390.—II. The neoclassical contributions to the debate, 393.-111. An eclectic model of wage dynamics, 398.-1V. Empirical analysis of the basic equation, 403.—V. Conclusions, 411.—Appendix, 414. The persistent problem of "stagflation"—the presence of both high une ..."
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is made that the accelerationists have reached their conclusion by a false route, their voluntary-unemployment-job-search theories. In order to support these positions, the Phillips Curve debate is briefly reviewed, cyclical patterns of unemployment are analyzed, and an eclectic model of wage movements
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