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Reasoning with Belief Functions: An Analysis of Compatibility (1990)
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| Venue: | International Journal of Approximate Reasoning |
| Citations: | 41 - 0 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Pearl90reasoningwith,
author = {Judea Pearl},
title = {Reasoning with Belief Functions: An Analysis of Compatibility},
journal = {International Journal of Approximate Reasoning},
year = {1990},
volume = {4},
pages = {363--389}
}
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Abstract
This paper examines the applicability of belief functions methodology in three reasoning tasks: (1) representation of incomplete knowledge, (2) belief updating, and (3) evidence pooling. We find that belief functions have difficulties representing incomplete knowledge, primarily knowledge expressed in conditional sentences. In this context, we also show that the prevailing practices of encoding if-then rules as belief function expressions are inadequate, as they lead to counterintuitive con-clusions under chaining, contraposition, and reasoning by cases. Next, we examine the role of belief functions in updating states of belief and find that, if partial knowledge is encoded and updated by belief function methods, the updating pro-cess violates basic patterns of plausibility and the resulting beliefs cannot serve as a basis for rational decisions. Finally, assessing their role in evidence pooling, we find that belief functions offer a rich language for describing the evidence gath-ered, highly compatible with the way people summarize observations. However, the methods available for integrating evidence into a coherent state of belief ca-
Keyphrases
belief function incomplete knowledge belief updating coherent state belief function expression way people evidence pooling partial knowledge prevailing practice rational decision pro-cess violates basic pattern rich language conditional sentence if-then rule belief function methodology belief function method
