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Simple tools for understanding risks: From innumeracy to insight (2003)
| Venue: | British Medical Journal |
| Citations: | 116 - 6 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Gigerenzer03simpletools,
author = {Gerd Gigerenzer},
title = {Simple tools for understanding risks: From innumeracy to insight},
journal = {British Medical Journal},
year = {2003},
pages = {741--744}
}
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Abstract
Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event probabilities, conditional probabilities (such as sensitivity and specificity), and relative risks. How can doctors improve the presentation of statistical information so that patients can make well-informed decisions? The science fiction writer H. G. Wells predicted that in modern technological societies statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. How far have we got, a hundred or so years later? A glance at the literature shows a shocking lack of statistical understanding of the outcomes of modern technologies, from standard screening tests for HIV infection to DNA evidence. For instance, doctors, with an average of 14 years of profes-sional experience were asked to imagine using the Haemoccult test to screen for colorectal cancer. 1 2 The prevalence of cancer was 0.3%, the sensitivity of the test was 50%, and the false positive rate was 3%. The doctors were asked: What is the probability that someone who tests positive actually has colorectal cancer? The correct answer is about 5%. However, the doctors’
Keyphrases
simple tool colorectal cancer single event probability particular intervention modern technology well-informed decision standard screening test shocking lack relative risk hiv infection profes-sional experience conditional probability modern technological society statistical thinking dna evidence false positive rate medical statistic statistical information haemoccult test statistical understanding correct answer science fiction writer bad presentation particularly confusing efficient citizenship poor decision
