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Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments (2008)
| Venue: | Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization |
| Citations: | 13 - 2 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Hommes08expectationsand,
author = {Cars Hommes and Joep Sonnemans and Jan Tuinstra and Henk Van De Velden},
title = {Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments},
journal = {Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization},
year = {2008},
pages = {116--133}
}
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Abstract
Abstract: We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experi-mental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most experiments prices deviate from the benchmark fundamental and bubbles emerge endogenously. These bubbles are inconsistent with rational expectations and seem to be driven by trend chasing behavior or positive feedback expectations of the participants. We also analyze individual predictions of participants and Þnd that participants within a group tend to coordinate on a common prediction strategy.
Keyphrases
asset pricing experiment risky asset experiment price controlled experi-mental environment group tend unknown market equilibrium equation realized market price individual forecast individual prediction present result rational expectation period subject positive feedback expectation expectation formation common prediction strategy next price
