Climatology and predictability of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround over
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BibTeX
@MISC{Wunch_climatologyand,
author = {Debra Wunch and Martin P. Tingley and Theodore G. Shepherd and James R. Drummond and G. W. K. Moore and Kimberly Strong},
title = {Climatology and predictability of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround over},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
ABSTRACT A climatology of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround phenomenon is presented, with a particular focus on the behaviour over the Meteorological Service of Canada’s balloon-launching site at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan (52°N, 107°W). Turnaround refers to the change in sign of the zonal wind velocity and occurs twice each year at stratospheric mid-latitudes, in early spring and in late summer. The late summer turn-around is of particular interest to the high-altitude ballooning community because it offers the ideal conditions for launch, but it is also an interesting dynamical phenomenon in its own right. It is studied here using both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (MetO) analysis products as well as climate simula-tion data from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The phenomenon and its interannual variabil-ity are documented. The predictability of the late summer turnaround over Vanscoy is investigated using both statistical averages and autocorrelation analysis. From the statistical averages, it is found that during every year since 1993, the period from 26 August to 5 September has contained appropriate launch dates. From the auto-correlation analysis, it is found that stratospheric zonal wind anomalies can persist for a month or more during most of the summer, but there is a predictability horizon at the end of the summer — just before turnaround RESUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] On présente une climatologie du phénomène de renversement du vent zonal
Keyphrases
statistical average canadian middle atmosphere model late summer atmospheric research late summer turnaround turnaround refers renversement du vent zonal climate simula-tion data analysis product early spring late summer turn-around national center appropriate launch date stratospheric zonal wind anomaly zonal wind velocity particular focus united kingdom meteorological office high-altitude ballooning community stratospheric mid-latitudes balloon-launching site environmental prediction national center ideal condition interesting dynamical phenomenon auto-correlation analysis meteorological service predictability horizon particular interest autocorrelation analysis ncep ncar interannual variabil-ity
