DMCA
2001, “Analysis of Demand Uncertainty Effects
| Venue: | in Ground Delay Programs,” 4th US/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar |
| Citations: | 5 - 1 self |
BibTeX
@INPROCEEDINGS{Ball_2001,“analysis,
author = {Michael Ball and Thomas Vossen and Robert H. Smith and Robert Hoffman},
title = {2001, “Analysis of Demand Uncertainty Effects},
booktitle = {in Ground Delay Programs,” 4th US/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
The Federal Aviation Administration and the avi-ation community within the U.S. have recently adopted new operational procedures and deci-sion support tools for implementing and manag-ing Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) based on the Collaborative Decision Making paradigm. In this paper, we investigate the impact these proce-dures have had on aircraft arrival time uncertainty during GDPs and, more generally, on the conse-quences of arrival demand uncertainty for GDP performance. Our analysis employs two mod-els: a stochastic integer program and a simula-tion model; results are augmented with historical analysis. The integer program is interesting in its own right in because of an embedded binomial probability distribution. Our analysis produces three results. First, we compare the relative sig-nificance of some of the most prevalent sources of demand uncertainty. Second, we indicate how changes in the current practice for setting airport arrival rates can lead to significant benefits. Fi-nally, we discuss how the combination of timely cancellation notices and the use of the Compres-sion algorithm (an inter-airline slot exchange pro-cedure that attempts to maximize utilization in the presence of delays and cancellations) may af-fect the uncertainty of flight arrival times during ground delay programs.
Keyphrases
demand uncertainty effect current practice arrival demand uncertainty embedded binomial probability distribution airport arrival rate historical analysis federal aviation administration ground delay program significant benefit integer program gdp performance flight arrival time collaborative decision making paradigm stochastic integer program simula-tion model compres-sion algorithm avi-ation community new operational procedure deci-sion support tool timely cancellation notice inter-airline slot exchange pro-cedure manag-ing ground delay program relative sig-nificance prevalent source aircraft arrival time uncertainty demand uncertainty
