Abstract

This paper sets out a framework for modelling causal or predictive systems, and is concerned with bridging the gap between the theory and practice of nonmonotonic temporal reasoning. The central result is a nonmonotonic reasoning methodology which subsumes Shoham's chronological ignorance (CI) formalism for causal theories. The new formalism uses an extension of Reiter 's default logic and, unlike chronological ignorance, the approach is proof-theoretic. This leads to a simple proof procedure based on classical deduction. We suggest several improvements over Shoham's approach which include removing the need for a modal (or other epistemic) logic. The result is a simple framework for predictive modelling which can be implemented using a standard theorem prover. Keywords: causal reasoning, nonmonotonic temporal reasoning, predictive modelling, default logic 1 Introduction Formal techniques for modelling systems characterised by discrete events have failed to attract the confidence and...

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