@MISC{Manfred_somefundamental, author = {Borovcnik Manfred}, title = {Some fundamental ideas in probability}, year = {} }

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Abstract

In this panel discussion I want to focus your attention to three – of many – aspects of probability, which influence our individual capacity and the way how we perceive situations and their standard mathematical treatment – these are: thinking probabilistically, weighing the evidence, and the paradox of stabilizing and fluctuating of relative frequencies. 1 Thinking probabilistically While mathematicians would define thinking probabilistically in terms of adequate use of probabilistic models, individuals are faced with the context of the situations to be modelled. And the ingredients of these situations could lead to directions completely different from standard mathematical models and their solutions. For didactical purpose it has to be clarified in which respects thinking probabilistically could be characterized. Some features are illustrated by context and comprise amongst others: i. Feedback in probability items is indirect – you may win with the wrong strategy (Figure 1). ii. Interference with causal perception might lead astray (Figure 2). iii. Our criteria in probabilistic situations might be completely non probabilistic and emotionally laden (Figure 3). The spinner with a special margin. Which is the better choice if the spinner is twisted and the