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Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 (2000)
BibTeX
@MISC{College00examinationof,
author = {Myung-Hee Kim College and Myung-hee Y. Kim and John W. Wilson},
title = {Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23},
year = {2000}
}
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Abstract
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Introduction A statistical model based on the accumulating cycle sunspot data has been developed to estimate future levels of solar cycle activity, and the sunspot number estimates have been coupled to space-related quantities of interest to radiation protection because the sunspot cycle affects the near-Earth environment (ref. 1). In the previous...
Keyphrases
solar cycle solar cycle statistical model statistical model new prediction sunspot number cycle sunspot data space-related quantity current cycle improved sunspot projection near-earth environment sunspot cycle solar cycle activity accurate solar minimum occurrence previous prediction future level current solar cycle future time moderate level sunspot number estimate historical sunspot cycle odd-even behavior cycle observation short range
