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Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters by
| Citations: | 2 - 0 self |
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@MISC{Brinkman_ethicalchallenges,
author = {P. Anthony Brinkman and P. Anthony Brinkman and P. Anthony and Brinkman Abstract and P. Anthony Brinkman},
title = {Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters by},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
Thirty years ago scholars first presented convincing evidence that local officials use biased travel demand forecasts to justify decisions based on unstated considerations. Since then, a number of researchers have demonstrated convincingly that such forecasts are systematically optimistic–often wildly so–for reasons that cannot be explained solely by the inherent difficulty of predicting the future. Why do modelers–professional engineers and planners who use quantitative techniques to predict future demand for travel and estimate its potential impact on built and proposed transportation facilities–generate biased forecasts and otherwise tolerate the misuse of their work? On initial consideration, it is tempting to surmise that corrupt modelers are responsible for biased forecasting. Indeed, corruption is the most common explanation of forecasting bias and tales of mercenary behavior are all too common in the field. Data from in-depth interviews with twenty-nine travel demand forecasters throughout the United States and Canada, how-1 ever, suggest new and different ways to understand the suspect behavior of transportation planning professionals. Those most likely to introduce bias and invite misuse of travel forecasts assume
Keyphrases
travel demand forecaster professional response ethical challenge quantitative technique future demand invite misuse united state twenty-nine travel demand forecaster local official mercenary behavior in-depth interview convincing evidence inherent difficulty potential impact travel forecast common explanation unstated consideration different way travel demand forecast initial consideration suspect behavior biased forecast transportation planning professional modeler professional engineer corrupt modeler transportation facility biased forecasting
