BibTeX
@MISC{John04economics199,
author = {Christopher John and F. Cruz and Frances Margaret Canlas},
title = {Economics 199 Submitted by},
year = {2004}
}
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Abstract
This paper is an attempt to prove the existence of a cycle in agricultural crop production in the Philippines using time series data from 1970-2003 of the four major crops in the country – rice, corn, coconut and sugarcane. The extraction of a relevant cycle in time series is implemented using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. The study conducts a deviation from trend analysis to test the relevance of the resulting cycle. The paper takes the analysis a step further by trying to identify the significant determinants of the cycle. The authors hypothesize that the major determinant of the cycle is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events – the El Niño and La Niña. To this end, four multiple regression models are constructed with the ENSO, domestic and world prices, hectarage, agricultural loans, implicit tariff and the domestic capital formation as the relevant variables. Two measures of ENSO are used – the Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly and the Southern Oscillation Index. Results from the statistical extraction show that cyclical fluctuations do manifest in the agricultural crop production in the Philippines. The turning points of the resulting cycle coincide with the ENSO years. The time series also shows marked deviations from the trend, which coincide with the turning
Keyphrases
agricultural crop production time series el ni cyclical fluctuation relevant variable la ni world price hodrick-prescott filter sea-surface temperature anomaly statistical extraction show implicit tariff agricultural loan marked deviation major crop resulting cycle coincide relevant cycle multiple regression model time series data country rice major determinant domestic capital formation southern oscillation index trend analysis enso year significant determinant extreme event resulting cycle southern oscillation
