The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection

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The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection (2000)

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by Stefan Axelsson

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@MISC{Axelsson00thebase-rate,
    author = {Stefan Axelsson},
    title = {The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection},
    year = {2000}
}

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Abstract

Many different demands can be... This paper aims to demonstrate that, for a reasonable set of assumptions, the false alarm rate is the limiting factor for the performance of an intrusion detection system. This is due to the baserate fallacy phenomenon, that in order to achieve substantial values of the Bayesian detection rate, P(Intrusion|Alarm), we have to achieve -- a perhaps in some cases unattainably low -- false alarm rate. A selection of reports...

Keyphrases

intrusion detection base-rate fallacy substantial value intrusion detection system bayesian detection rate many different demand intrusion alarm reasonable set limiting factor false alarm rate low false alarm rate baserate fallacy phenomenon

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