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Affective forecasting (2003)
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| Venue: | Advances in Experimental Social Psychology |
| Citations: | 169 - 13 self |
BibTeX
@INPROCEEDINGS{Wilson03affectiveforecasting,
author = {Timothy D. Wilson and Daniel T. Gilbert},
title = {Affective forecasting},
booktitle = {Advances in Experimental Social Psychology},
year = {2003},
pages = {345--411}
}
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Abstract
It must be troubling for the god who loves you To ponder how much happier you'd be today Had you been able to glimpse your many futures. —Dennis (2001, p. 72) Foreseeing the future is one of the most appealing of all psychic powers. Who has not dreamed of making millions by predicting which new offering on Wall Street will be the next Microsoft and whether the Red Sox or Phillies will win the World Series? Seeing into the future would bring many advantages other than fattening our wallets, such as eliminating all decisionmaking angst. Rather than worrying about whether we are best suited for a career as a lawyer or an interior designer, whether we should marry Sam or Harry, or whether we should buy our neighbor's 1992 Volvo, we could simply glance into our crystal balls and see how these various options would pan out. People do not have crystal balls, of course (at least not accurate ones) and thus must prognosticate as best they can, based on what they know in the present. There is a great deal of research on how people make predictions about the future, including decision making under uncertainty (e.g.,
