@MISC{Yudkowsky_atechnical, author = {Eliezer Yudkowsky}, title = {A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation}, year = {} }

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Abstract

This version contains minor changes. Eliezer Yudkowsky This essay is meant for a reader who has attained a firm grasp of Bayes ’ Theorem. An introduction to Bayes ’ Theorem may be found in An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning (Yudkowsky 2003). You should easily recognize, and intuitively understand, the concepts prior probability, posterior probability, likelihood ratio, and odds ratio. This essay is intended as a sequel to the Intuitive Explanation, but you might skip that introduction if you are already thoroughly Bayesian. Where the Intuitive Explanation focused on providing a firm grasp of Bayesian basics, A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation builds, on a Bayesian foundation, theses about human rationality and philosophy of science. The Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning promised that mastery of addition, multiplication, and division would be sufficient background, with no subtraction required. To this the Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation adds logarithms. The math is simple, but necessary, and it appears first in the order of exposition. Some pictures may not be drawn with words alone.