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248
Entering the century of the environment: a new social contract for science.
- Science
, 1998
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Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways", Water Policy 1(2
, 1998
"... There are 261 international rivers, covering almost one half of the total land surface of the globe and untold numbers of shared aquifers. Water has been a cause of political tensions between Arabs and Israelis, Indians and Bangladeshis, Americans and Mexicans, and all ten riparian states of the Nil ..."
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Cited by 54 (10 self)
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There are 261 international rivers, covering almost one half of the total land surface of the globe and untold numbers of shared aquifers. Water has been a cause of political tensions between Arabs and Israelis, Indians and Bangladeshis, Americans and Mexicans, and all ten riparian states of the Nile river. Water is the only scarce resource for which there is no substitute, over which there is poorly developed international law and the need for which is overwhelming, constant and immediate. As a consequence, ‘water ’ and ‘war ’ are two topics being assessed together with increasing frequency. This paper investigates the reality of historic water conflict and draws lessons for the plausibility of future ‘water wars’. The datasets of conflict are explored for those related to water — only seven minor skirmishes are found in this century; no war has ever been fought over water. In contrast, 145 water-related treaties were signed in the same period. These treaties, collected and catalogued in a computerized database along with relevant notes from negotiators, are assessed for patterns of conflict resolution. War over water seems neither strategically rational, hydrographically eective, nor economically viable. Shared interests along a waterway seem to consistently outweigh water’s conflict-inducing characteristics. Furthermore, once cooperative water regimes are established through treaty, they turn out to be impressively resilient over time, even between otherwise hostile riparians and even as conflict is waged over other issues. These patterns suggest that the more valuable lesson of international water is as a resources whose characteristics tend to induce cooperation and incite violence only in the exception.
International waters: Identifying basins at risk
- In Water Policy 5:29-60 Wonink, S.J., Kok, M.T.J. and Hilderink, H.B.M. (2005). Vulnerability and Human Well-being. Report 500019003/2005. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven World Bank
, 2003
"... Despite the growing literature on water and conflict in international river basins, little empirical work has been done to bolster common conclusions which are so widely reported. In order to address this gap, we set out to assess all reported events of either conflict or cooperation between nations ..."
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Cited by 29 (4 self)
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Despite the growing literature on water and conflict in international river basins, little empirical work has been done to bolster common conclusions which are so widely reported. In order to address this gap, we set out to assess all reported events of either conflict or cooperation between nations over water resources during the last 50 years and to use these events to inform the identification of basins at greatest risk of political stress in the near future (5–10 years). The study is divided into three components: 1. Compilation and assessment of relevant biophysical, socio-economic and geopolitical data in a global Geographic Information System (GIS), and use of these factors to determine history-based indicators for future tensions along international waterways. 2. Using these indicators, identification of basins at risk for the coming decade. 3. Identification and assessment of the potential for mitigating factors and new technologies resulting in a future different than that predicted by history-based indicators. In general, we find that most of the parameters regularly identified as indicators of water conflict are actually only weakly linked to disputes, but that institutional capacity within a basin, whether defined as water management bodies or treaties, or generally positive international relations are as important, if not more so, than the physical
Avoiding conflicts over Africa‟s water resources. AMBIO: A
- Journal of the Human Environment
"... Some 85 % of Africa’s water resources are comprised of large river basins that are shared between several countries. High rates of population growth accompanied by continued increases in the demand for water have resulted in several countries passing the point where the scarcity of water supplies ef ..."
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Cited by 21 (2 self)
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Some 85 % of Africa’s water resources are comprised of large river basins that are shared between several countries. High rates of population growth accompanied by continued increases in the demand for water have resulted in several countries passing the point where the scarcity of water supplies effectively limits further development. Present population trends and patterns of water use suggest that more African countries will exceed the limits of their economically usable, land-based water resources before 2025. Normally, water allocation and distribution priorities within a country are aligned with national development objectives. Whilst this may achieve national “water security ” objectives, greater emphasis needs to be placed on regional efforts to ensure that the available water resources are used to derive sustainable long-term benefits for the peoples of Africa as a whole. Ideally, each country’s water resource management strategy needs to be aligned with that of its neighbours if peace and prosperity are to be maintained and conflict is to be avoided in the region.
Security and climate change
- Global Environmental Change
, 2003
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Effective Property Rights, Conflict and Growth
- Journal of Ecnomic Theory
"... This paper develops a theory of the interaction between appropriative conflict and economic growth. Appropriative conflict, as measured by the diversion of resources, is viewed as the cost of securing effective property rights. We identify conditions under which conflict rises or falls as the rate o ..."
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Cited by 17 (0 self)
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This paper develops a theory of the interaction between appropriative conflict and economic growth. Appropriative conflict, as measured by the diversion of resources, is viewed as the cost of securing effective property rights. We identify conditions under which conflict rises or falls as the rate of economic growth improves. The main implication of the analysis is that if the quality of property rights is sufficiently poor then faster economic growth stimulates the allocation of resources to appropriative activities and might result in decreased social welfare.
Strategies for studying causation in complex ecological- political systems
- Journal of Environment and Development
, 1996
"... This article shows that some commonly advocated methodological principles of modern political science are inapprapriate for the study of complex ecological-political systems. It also provides conceptual tools for thinking about the causal roles of environmental and demographic factors, and it discus ..."
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Cited by 17 (0 self)
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This article shows that some commonly advocated methodological principles of modern political science are inapprapriate for the study of complex ecological-political systems. It also provides conceptual tools for thinking about the causal roles of environmental and demographic factors, and it discusses various strategies for hypothesis and inference testing.
social capital, and the environment: Considering migrant selectivity and networks in relation to coastal ecosystems
- Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis, The Population Council
"... This essay shows that there is a timely convergence of ideas and demand for empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between migration and coastal ecosystems. It explores a limited set of theoretical pathways from which hypotheses might be derived about the positive and negative impacts ..."
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Cited by 14 (2 self)
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This essay shows that there is a timely convergence of ideas and demand for empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between migration and coastal ecosystems. It explores a limited set of theoretical pathways from which hypotheses might be derived about the positive and negative impacts of migration upon the environment. These pathways are derived from a discussion about property relations in coastal ecosystems and current theory about migration processes. Social capital emerges as a key concept in both literatures enabling a productive, theoretical synthesis. In conclusion, some examples from recent research about coastal ecosystems are used to generate a future research agenda that systematically addresses measurement, methods, and modeling approaches for refining our understanding of the possible impact of migration upon coastal ecosystems. 1
The Economics of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies: Preliminary Approaches and Findings. Draft report
, 1996
"... and on this project for their help, but I am solely responsible for errors. CONTENTS Abstract v I ..."
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Cited by 14 (1 self)
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and on this project for their help, but I am solely responsible for errors. CONTENTS Abstract v I
Why Worry About Climate Change? A Research Agenda
, 2008
"... Estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions suggest that, although climate change is a problem and some emission reduction is justified, very stringent abatement does not pass the cost-benefit test. However, current estimates of the economic impact of climate change are incomp ..."
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Cited by 11 (1 self)
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Estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions suggest that, although climate change is a problem and some emission reduction is justified, very stringent abatement does not pass the cost-benefit test. However, current estimates of the economic impact of climate change are incomplete. Some of the missing impacts are likely to be positive and others negative, but overall the uncertainty seems to concentrate on the downside risks and current estimates of the damage costs may have a negative bias. The research effort on the economic impacts of climate change is minute and lacks diversity. This field of study should be strengthened, with a particular focus on the quantification of uncertainties; estimating missing impacts, estimating impacts in developing countries; interactions between impacts and higher-order effects; the valuation of biodiversity loss; the implications of extreme climate scenarios and violent conflict; and climate change in the very long term. I discuss these particular gaps in research, and speculate on possible sign and size of the impacts of climate change.
