The tutorial starts with an overview of the concepts of VC dimension and structural risk minimization. We then describe linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for separable and non-separable data, working through a non-trivial example in detail. We describe a mechanical analogy, and discuss when SVM solutions are unique and when they are global. We describe how support vector training can be practically implemented, and discuss in detail the kernel mapping technique which is used to construct SVM solutions which are nonlinear in the data. We show how Support Vector machines can have very large (even infinite) VC dimension by computing the VC dimension for homogeneous polynomial and Gaussian radial basis function kernels. While very high VC dimension would normally bode ill for generalization performance, and while at present there exists no theory which shows that good generalization performance is guaranteed for SVMs, there are several arguments which support the observed high accuracy of SVMs, which we review. Results of some experiments which were inspired by these arguments are also presented. We give numerous examples and proofs of most of the key theorems. There is new material, and I hope that the reader will find that even old material is cast in a fresh light.

This paper provides an introduction to support vector machines (SVMs), kernel Fisher discriminant analysis, and

The problem of empirical data modelling is germane to many engineering applications. In empirical data modelling a process of induction is used to build up a model of the system, from which it is hoped to deduce responses of the system that have yet to be observed. Ultimately the quantity and quality of the observations govern the performance of this empirical model. By its observational nature data obtained is finite and sampled; typically this sampling is non-uniform and due to the high dimensional nature of the problem the data will form only a sparse distribution in the input space. Consequently the problem is nearly always ill posed (Poggio et al., 1985) in the sense of Hadamard (Hadamard, 1923). Traditional neural network approaches have suffered difficulties with generalisation, producing models that can overfit the data. This is a consequence of the optimisation algorithms used for parameter selection and the statistical measures used to select the ’best’ model. The foundations of Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been developed by Vapnik (1995) and are gaining popularity due to many attractive features, and promising empirical performance. The formulation embodies the Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle, which has been shown to be superior, (Gunn et al., 1997), to traditional Empirical Risk Minimisation (ERM) principle, employed by conventional neural networks. SRM minimises an upper bound on the expected risk, as opposed to ERM that minimises the error on the training data. It is this difference which equips SVM with a greater ability to generalise, which is the goal in statistical learning. SVMs were developed to solve the classification problem, but recently they have been extended to the domain of regression problems (Vapnik et al., 1997). In the literature the terminology for SVMs can be slightly confusing. The term SVM is typically used to describe classification with support vector methods and support vector regression is used to describe regression with support vector methods. In this report the term SVM will refer to both classification and regression methods, and the terms Support Vector Classification (SVC) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) will be used for specification. This section continues with a brief introduction to the structural risk

Financial forecasting is an example of a signal processing problem which is challenging due to small sample sizes, high noise, non-stationarity, and non-linearity. Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. We discuss fundamental limitations and inherent difficulties when using neural networks for the processing of high noise, small sample size signals. We introduce a new intelligent signal processing method which addresses the difficulties. The method proposed uses conversion into a symbolic representation with a selforganizing map, and grammatical inference with recurrent neural networks. We apply the method to the prediction of daily foreign exchange rates, addressing difficulties with non-stationarity, overfitting, and unequal a priori class probabilities, and we find significant predictability in comprehensive experiments covering 5 different foreign exchange rates. The method correctly predicts the direction of change for th...

We derive a new general representation for a function as a linear combination of local correlation kernels at optimal sparse locations (and scales) and characterize its relation to PCA, regularization, sparsity principles and Support Vector Machines.

The sequential minimal optimization algorithm (SMO) has been shown to be an effective method for training support vector machines

We consider the question of predicting nonlinear time series. Kernel Dynamical Modeling, a new method based on kernels, is proposed as an extension to linear dynamical models. The kernel trick is used twice: first, to learn the parameter of the model, and second, to compute preimages of the time series predicted in the feature space by means of Support Vector Regression. Our model shows strong connection with the classic Kalman Filter model, with the kernel feature space as hidden state space.

Recently, Support Vector Regression (SVR) has been introduced to solve regression and prediction problems. In this paper, we apply SVR to financial prediction tasks. In particular, the financial data are usually noisy and the associated risk is time-varying. Therefore, our SVR model is an extension of the standard SVR which incorporates margins adaptation. By varying the margins of the SVR, we could reflect the change in volatility of the financial data. Furthermore, we have analyzed the effect of asymmetrical margins so as to allow for the reduction of the downside risk. Our experimental results show that the use of standard deviation to calculate a variable margin gives a good predictive result in the prediction of Hang Seng Index.

In recent years, gradient-based LSTM recurrent neural networks (RNNs) solved many previously RNN-unlearnable tasks. Sometimes, however, gradient information is of little use for training RNNs, due to numerous local minima. For such cases, we present a novel method: EVOlution of systems with LINear Outputs (Evolino). Evolino evolves weights to the nonlinear, hidden nodes of RNNs while computing optimal linear mappings from hidden state to output, using methods such as pseudoinverse-based linear regression. If we instead use quadratic programming to maximize the margin, we obtain the first evolutionary recurrent support vector machines. We show that Evolino-based LSTM can solve tasks that Echo State nets (Jaeger, 2004a) cannot and achieves higher accuracy in certain continuous function generation tasks than conventional gradient descent RNNs, including gradient-based LSTM.

Abstract not found