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Causal diagrams
, 2008
"... Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probabil ..."
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Abstract: From their inception, causal systems models (more commonly known as structuralequations models) have been accompanied by graphical representations or path diagrams that provide compact summaries of qualitative assumptions made by the models. These diagrams can be reinterpreted as probability models, enabling use of graph theory in probabilistic inference, and allowing easy deduction of independence conditions implied by the assumptions. They can also be used as a formal tool for causal inference, such as predicting the effects of external interventions. Given that the diagram is correct, one can see whether the causal effects of interest (target effects, or causal estimands) can be estimated from available data, or what additional observations are needed to validly estimate those effects. One can also see how to represent the effects as familiar standardized effect measures. The present article gives an overview of: (1) components of causal graph theory; (2) probability interpretations of graphical models; and (3) methodologic implications of the causal and probability structures encoded in the graph, such as sources of bias and the data needed for their control.
The Mediation Formula: A guide to the assessment of causal pathways in nonlinear models
 STATISTICAL CAUSALITY. FORTHCOMING.
, 2011
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Principal stratification a goal or a tool? The
 International Journal of Biostatistics 7. Article
"... Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions particularly in dealing with postrandomization factors in randomized trials. Here we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal strati ..."
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Cited by 18 (7 self)
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Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions particularly in dealing with postrandomization factors in randomized trials. Here we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest.
Learning highdimensional directed acyclic graphs with latent and selection variables
, 2012
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Counterfactual Reasoning and Learning Systems: The Example of Computational Advertising
"... This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the syst ..."
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Cited by 12 (0 self)
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This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the system performance. This work is illustrated by experiments on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine.
The Foundations of Causal Inference
 SUBMITTED TO SOCIOLOGICAL METHODOLOGY.
, 2010
"... This paper reviews recent advances in the foundations of causal inference and introduces a systematic methodology for defining, estimating and testing causal claims in experimental and observational studies. It is based on nonparametric structural equation models (SEM) – a natural generalization of ..."
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Cited by 11 (4 self)
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This paper reviews recent advances in the foundations of causal inference and introduces a systematic methodology for defining, estimating and testing causal claims in experimental and observational studies. It is based on nonparametric structural equation models (SEM) – a natural generalization of those used by econometricians and social scientists in the 195060s, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring the effects of potential interventions (also called “causal effects” or “policy evaluation”), as well as direct and indirect effects (also known as “mediation”), in both linear and nonlinear systems. Finally, the paper clarifies the role of propensity score matching in causal analysis, defines the relationships between the structural and
revised) ‘Big data: new tricks for econometrics
 Journal of Economic Perspectives
, 2014
"... Nowadays computers are in the middle of most economic transactions. These “computermediated transactions ” generate huge amounts of data, and new tools can be used to manipulate and analyze this data. This essay offers a brief introduction to some of these tools and methods. Computers are now invo ..."
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Cited by 9 (0 self)
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Nowadays computers are in the middle of most economic transactions. These “computermediated transactions ” generate huge amounts of data, and new tools can be used to manipulate and analyze this data. This essay offers a brief introduction to some of these tools and methods. Computers are now involved in many economic transactions and can capture data associated with these transactions, which can then be manipulated and analyzed. Conventional statistical and econometric techniques such as regression often work well but there are issues unique to big datasets that may require different tools. First, the sheer size of the data involved may require more powerful data manipulation tools. Second, we may have more potential predictors than appropriate for estimation, so we need to do some kind of variable selection. Third, large datasets may allow for more flexible relationships than simple
et al. Perturbation biology: inferring signaling networks in cellular systems. PLoS Comput Biol 2013;9(12):e1003290
"... We present a powerful experimentalcomputational technology for inferring network models that predict the response of cells to perturbations, and that may be useful in the design of combinatorial therapy against cancer. The experiments are systematic series of perturbations of cancer cell lines by t ..."
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We present a powerful experimentalcomputational technology for inferring network models that predict the response of cells to perturbations, and that may be useful in the design of combinatorial therapy against cancer. The experiments are systematic series of perturbations of cancer cell lines by targeted drugs, singly or in combination. The response to perturbation is quantified in terms of relative changes in the measured levels of proteins, phosphoproteins and cellular phenotypes such as viability. Computational network models are derived de novo, i.e., without prior knowledge of signaling pathways, and are based on simple nonlinear differential equations. The prohibitively large solution space of all possible network models is explored efficiently using a probabilistic algorithm, Belief Propagation (BP), which is three orders of magnitude faster than standard Monte Carlo methods. Explicit executable models are derived for a set of perturbation experiments in SKMEL133 melanoma cell lines, which are resistant to the therapeutically important inhibitor of RAF kinase. The resulting network models reproduce and extend known pathway biology. They empower potential