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The Minimalist Model of characteristic earthquakes as a useful tool for description of the recurrence of large earthquakes
 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am
, 2004
"... Renewal models are usually applied to seismic regions where large earthquakes occur repeatedly at approximately regular time intervals. In most cases, these models lack a seismological basis and are just well known statistical distributions rooted in reliability theory. Here we show the good propert ..."
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Cited by 3 (1 self)
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Renewal models are usually applied to seismic regions where large earthquakes occur repeatedly at approximately regular time intervals. In most cases, these models lack a seismological basis and are just well known statistical distributions rooted in reliability theory. Here we show the good properties of the recently introduced minimalist model of characteristic earthquakes to describe the recurrence of these large earthquakes. Several examples in Japan, Italy and USA are shown. 1
Updating Seismic Hazard at Parkfield
, 2008
"... The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M=6.0 earthquake at Parkfield, California, has significantly modified the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between the big events in this segment of the San Andreas fault. Using the Minimalist Model of characteristic earthquakes, the Brow ..."
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The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M=6.0 earthquake at Parkfield, California, has significantly modified the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between the big events in this segment of the San Andreas fault. Using the Minimalist Model of characteristic earthquakes, the Brownian Passage Time Model and other, standard, statistical schemes as renewal models, we fit the new data series and recalculate the hazard parameters for the new seismic cycle. The differences resulting from these various renewal models are emphasized.
unknown title
, 2006
"... A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model ..."
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A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model
unknown title
, 2005
"... A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model ..."
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A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model
Departamento de Física Teórica and BIFI.
, 2003
"... Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristicearthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a onedimensional num ..."
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Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristicearthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a onedimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to twodimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a threedimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%. I.