Abstract—Several analytic models describe the steady-state throughput of bulk transfer TCP flows as a function of round trip time and packet loss rate. These models describe flows based on the assumption that they are long enough to sustain many packet losses. However, most TCP transfers across today’s Internet are short enough to see few, if any, losses and consequently their performance is dominated by startup effects such as connection establishment and slow start. This paper extends the steadystate model proposed in [34] in order to capture these startup effects. The extended model characterizes the expected value and distribution of TCP connection establishment and data transfer latency as a function of transfer size, round trip time, and packet loss rate. Using simulations, controlled measurements of TCP transfers, and live Web measurements we show that, unlike earlier steady-state models for TCP performance, our extended model describes connection establishment and data transfer latency under a range of packet loss conditions, including no loss. I.