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14
Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions
- Climatic Change
, 2005
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Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska’s changing climate
, 2010
"... Abstract: Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem ..."
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Abstract: Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone terrestrial subsistence resource of villages in that region. Although recent climate change has affected the boreal forest, moose, and Athabascan moose harvesting, a high dependence by village households on moose persists. An historical account of 20th century socioeconomic changes demonstrates that the vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has in some respects increased while at the same time has improved aspects of village resilience. In the face of future climate and socioeconomic changes, communities have limited but potentially effective mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The extent to which residents can realize those opportunities depends on the responsiveness of formal and informal institutions to local needs. For example, increases in Alaska’s urban population coupled with climate-induced habitat shifts may increase hunting conflicts in low-moose years. This problem could be mitigated through adaptive co-management strategies that project future moose densities and redirect urban hunters to areas of lower conflict. Résumé: La récolte de subsistance et la production de nourriture sauvage par le peuple athapascan fait partie d’un système socio-écologique intégré de l’intérieur de l’Alaska. Nous décrivons les effets des tendances récentes et des projections
High-Fidelity Computational Social Science in Anthropology: Prospects for Developing a Comparative Framework
- Social Science Computer Review
"... Approaches to modeling social phenomena vary on a continuum from simple models, in which causality is clear and parameters few, to realistic, high-fidelity models designed to capture the most detailed system behavior possible in a specific setting. Anthropologists have produced both simple and high- ..."
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Approaches to modeling social phenomena vary on a continuum from simple models, in which causality is clear and parameters few, to realistic, high-fidelity models designed to capture the most detailed system behavior possible in a specific setting. Anthropologists have produced both simple and high-fidelity models. The focus of this article is on high-fidelity modeling in anthropology and the special challenge its complexity presents for model comparison. Useful model comparison requires docking, or rendering models comparable, and the author presents a framework for docking based on the work of Axelrod, and Cioffi-Revilla and Gotts. Docking not only renders models more comparable, allowing for more traditional theory testing, but it also sharpens the discussion about the ontology of anthropological phenomena and how they are best represented as theories and models.
The MASON HouseholdsWorld Model of Pastoral Nomad Societies
"... Abstract. Computational modeling of pastoralist societies that range as nomads over diverse environmental zones poses interesting challenges beyond those posed by sedentary societies. We present HouseholdsWorld, a new agentbased model of agro-pastoralists in a natural habitat that includes deserts, ..."
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Abstract. Computational modeling of pastoralist societies that range as nomads over diverse environmental zones poses interesting challenges beyond those posed by sedentary societies. We present HouseholdsWorld, a new agentbased model of agro-pastoralists in a natural habitat that includes deserts, grasslands, and mountains. This is the paper-of-record for the HouseholdsWorld model as part of a broader interdisciplinary project on computational modeling of long-term human adaptations in Inner Asia. The model is used for conducting experiments on socio-environmental interactions, social dynamics experiments, and for developing additional models with higher levels of social complexity.
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data CircumArtic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment Network (CARMA), 8 Alaska Ocean Observing System
"... ABSTRACT Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize ..."
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ABSTRACT Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.
Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotoren:
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Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges
"... Abstract We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the ..."
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Abstract We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decisionmaking and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.
(Canada) Review Editor:
"... Executive Summary 7 3 7 1 5. 1. The North American Region 7 4 1 1 5. 1. 1. Previous Wo r k 7 4 1 ..."
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Executive Summary 7 3 7 1 5. 1. The North American Region 7 4 1 1 5. 1. 1. Previous Wo r k 7 4 1
Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany
"... An application of data mining to fruit and vegetable sample identification using Gas ..."
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An application of data mining to fruit and vegetable sample identification using Gas
