Abstract — We survey a number of applications of the wavelet transform in time series prediction. We show how multiresolution prediction can capture short-range and long-term dependencies with only a few parameters to be estimated. We then develop a new multiresolution methodology for combined noise filtering and prediction, based on an approach which is similar to the Kalman filter. Based on considerable experimental assessment, we demonstrate the powerfulness of this methodology. Index Terms — Wavelet transform, filtering, forecasting, resolution, scale, autoregression, time series, model,

We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time series data set with external signals. Violence data from the Colombian conflict in the years 1990 to 2004 is used throughout. We conclude with some proposals for further study on the relationship between social violence and market forces, viz. between the Colombian conflict and the US narcotics market. 1