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A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Cointegrated Systems
 ECONOMETRICA
, 1993
"... Efficient estimators of cointegrating vectors are presented for systems involving deterministic components and variables of differing, higher orders of integration. The estimators are computed using GLS or OLS, and Wald Statistics constructed from these estimators have asymptotic x2 distributions. T ..."
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Cited by 507 (3 self)
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Efficient estimators of cointegrating vectors are presented for systems involving deterministic components and variables of differing, higher orders of integration. The estimators are computed using GLS or OLS, and Wald Statistics constructed from these estimators have asymptotic x2 distributions. These and previously proposed estimators of cointegrating vectors are used to study longrun U.S. money (Ml) demand. Ml demand is found to be stable over 19001989; the 95 % confidence intervals for the income elasticity and interest rate semielasticity are (.88,1.06) and (.13,.08), respectively. Estimates based on the postwar data alone, however, are unstable, with variances which indicate substantial sampling uncertainty.
Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration
 Journal of Applied Econometrics
, 1999
"... This paper employs response surface regressions based on simulation experiments to calculate asymptotic distribution functions for the Johansentype likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. These are carried out in the context of the models recently proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1997) that ..."
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Cited by 281 (11 self)
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This paper employs response surface regressions based on simulation experiments to calculate asymptotic distribution functions for the Johansentype likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. These are carried out in the context of the models recently proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1997) that allow for the possibility of exogenous variables integrated of order one. The paper calculates critical values that are very much more accurate than those available previously. The principal contributions of the paper are a set of data files that contain estimated asymptotic quantiles obtained from response surface estimation and a computer program for utilizing them. This program, which is freely available via the Internet, can be used to calculate both asymptotic critical values and P values. JEL Classification Number: C22 Keywords: cointegration tests, Johansen tests, vector autoregressions, exogenous variables, response surfaces, critical values, approximate
Spatial Econometrics
, 1998
"... amples in this text rely on a small data sample with 49 observations that can be used with the Student Version of MATLAB. The collection of around 450 functions and demonstration programs are organized into libraries, with approximately 30 spatial econometrics library functions described in this tex ..."
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Cited by 168 (6 self)
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amples in this text rely on a small data sample with 49 observations that can be used with the Student Version of MATLAB. The collection of around 450 functions and demonstration programs are organized into libraries, with approximately 30 spatial econometrics library functions described in this text. For those interested in other econometric functions or in adding programs to the spatial econometrics library, see the manual for the Econometrics Toolbox. The 350 page manual provides many details regarding programming techniques used to construct the functions and examples of adding new functions to the Econometrics Toolbox. This text does not focus on programming methods. The emphasis here is on applying the existing spatial econometric estimation functions to modeling spatial data sets. A consistent design was implemented that provides documentation, example programs, and functions to produce printed as well as graphical presentation of estimation results for all of the econometric functions. This
Housing collateral, consumption insurance, and risk premia, Working paper
, 2002
"... In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, and increases the condit ..."
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Cited by 136 (12 self)
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In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, and increases the conditional market price of risk. Using aggregate data for the US, we find that a decrease in the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth predicts higher returns on stocks. Conditional on this ratio, the covariance of returns with aggregate risk factors explains eighty percent of the crosssectional variation in annual size and booktomarket portfolio returns. 1
Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued? NBER Working Paper No. 6491
, 1998
"... Abstract: I implement two major approaches to identifying the equilibrium exchange rate. First, the concept of purchasing power parity is tested and used to define the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, Taiwanes ..."
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Cited by 88 (12 self)
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Abstract: I implement two major approaches to identifying the equilibrium exchange rate. First, the concept of purchasing power parity is tested and used to define the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht. The calculated PPP rates are then used to evaluate whether these seven East Asian currencies were overvalued. The purchasing power parity calculations are performed on broad price indices, price indices of tradable goods, and price indices of export goods using the Johansen and HorvathWatson cointegration test procedures. As of May 1997, the baht, ringgit and peso were overvalued according to this criterion. While the overvaluations are not large, they do appear to be persistent. Robustness checks for sensitivity to deflator, sample period, and numeraire currency are undertaken. Second, I calculate the implied equilibrium rates from a monetary model augmented by a proxy variable for productivity trends. The monetary models imply less substantial deviations from equilibrium. Furthermore, the results do not closely correspond to those obtained from the PPP calculations. Interestingly, both methods indicate that the Korean won was undervalued even before its recent discrete drop in value.
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are prespecified, Econometric Theory
, 1995
"... Many economic models imply that ratios, simple differences, or "spreads " of variables are I(O). In these models, cointegrating vectors are composed of l's, O's, and l's and contain no unknown parameters. In this paper, we develop tests for cointegration that can be applied ..."
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Cited by 75 (1 self)
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Many economic models imply that ratios, simple differences, or "spreads " of variables are I(O). In these models, cointegrating vectors are composed of l's, O's, and l's and contain no unknown parameters. In this paper, we develop tests for cointegration that can be applied when some of the cointegrating vectors are prespecified under the null or under the alternative hypotheses. These tests are constructed in a vector error correction model and are motivated as Wald tests from a Gaussian version of the model. When all of the cointegrating vectors are prespecified under the alternative, the tests correspond to the standard Wald tests for the inclusion of error correction terms in the VAR. Modifications of this basic test are developed when a subset of the cointegrating vectors contain unknown parameters. The asymptotic null distributions of the statistics are derived, critical values are determined, and the local power properties of the test are studied. Finally, the test is applied to data on foreign exchange future and spot prices to test the stability of the forwardspot premium. 1.
A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 73
, 1991
"... Federal Bank of St. Louis. ..."
Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend
 DISCUSSION PAPER 51, SFB 373, HUMBOLDTUNIVERSITAT ZU
, 1997
"... Standard tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have nonstandard limiting distributions which depend on the characteristics of intercept terms and time trends in the system. In practice these characteristics are often unknown. Therefore modified tests are proposed ..."
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Cited by 70 (5 self)
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Standard tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have nonstandard limiting distributions which depend on the characteristics of intercept terms and time trends in the system. In practice these characteristics are often unknown. Therefore modified tests are proposed with limiting distributions which do not depend on the characteristics of deterministic terms under the null hypothesis. One type of tests makes use of lag augmentation, that is, a VAR process of order p + 1 is fitted when the true order is p while the tests are based on the coefficient matrices of the first p lags only. It is shown that Ø 2 limiting distributions are obtained in this way. The price for this simplicity will be reduced power, however. Therefore, we also consider LM (Lagrange multiplier) type tests. These tests are shown to have nonstandard limiting distributions which do not depend on deterministic terms and have better local power than competing LR (likelihood ratio) test...
Longrun purchasing power parity during the recent float, Working paper 215
, 1990
"... This paper examines the relevance of longrun purchasing power parity (PPP). which allows for measurement errors. during the recent floating exchange rate period. Previous empirical studies generally fail to find support for longrun PPP over this period. In this paper the cointegration property of ..."
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Cited by 70 (4 self)
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This paper examines the relevance of longrun purchasing power parity (PPP). which allows for measurement errors. during the recent floating exchange rate period. Previous empirical studies generally fail to find support for longrun PPP over this period. In this paper the cointegration property of exchange rates and prices is examined using a maximum likelihood procedure, and we find significant evidence favorable to longrun PPP. Further tests for symmetry and proportionality indicate that these two conditions are not generally consistent with the data. The results support the hypothesis of longrun PPP with measurement errors in prices. 1.