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705
The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects.
 Biometrika
, 1983
"... SUMMARY The propensity score is the conditional probability of assignment to a particular treatment given a vector of observed covariates. Both large and small sample theory show that adjustment for the scalar propensity score is sufficient to remove bias due to all observed covariates. Application ..."
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Cited by 2779 (26 self)
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SUMMARY The propensity score is the conditional probability of assignment to a particular treatment given a vector of observed covariates. Both large and small sample theory show that adjustment for the scalar propensity score is sufficient to remove bias due to all observed covariates. Applications include: (i) matched sampling on the univariate propensity score, which is a generalization of discriminant matching, (ii) multivariate adjustment by subclassification on the propensity score where the same subclasses are used to estimate treatment effects for all outcome variables and in all subpopulations, and (iii) visual representation of multivariate covariance adjustment by a twodimensional plot.
Nonparametric estimation of average treatment effects under exogeneity: a review
 REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
, 2004
"... Recently there has been a surge in econometric work focusing on estimating average treatment effects under various sets of assumptions. One strand of this literature has developed methods for estimating average treatment effects for a binary treatment under assumptions variously described as exogen ..."
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Cited by 630 (25 self)
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Recently there has been a surge in econometric work focusing on estimating average treatment effects under various sets of assumptions. One strand of this literature has developed methods for estimating average treatment effects for a binary treatment under assumptions variously described as exogeneity, unconfoundedness, or selection on observables. The implication of these assumptions is that systematic (for example, average or distributional) differences in outcomes between treated and control units with the same values for the covariates are attributable to the treatment. Recent analysis has considered estimation and inference for average treatment effects under weaker assumptions than typical of the earlier literature by avoiding distributional and functionalform assumptions. Various methods of semiparametric estimation have been proposed, including estimating the unknown regression functions, matching, methods using the propensity score such as weighting and blocking, and combinations of these approaches. In this paper I review the state of this
General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations
 J. Comput. Graph. Statist
, 1998
"... We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develo ..."
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Cited by 551 (8 self)
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We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develop convergencemonitoring summaries that are relevant for the purposes for which the simulations are used. We recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the mixture of sequences. Finally, we discuss multivariate analogues, for assessing convergence of several parameters simultaneously.
Using confidence intervals in withinsubject designs
 PSYCHONOMIC BULLETIN & REVIEW
, 1994
"... ..."
Nonparametric Permutation Tests for Functional Neuroimaging: A Primer with Examples. Human Brain Mapping
, 2001
"... The statistical analyses of functional mapping experiments usually proceeds at the voxel level, involving the formation and assessment of a statistic image: at each voxel a statistic indicating evidence of the experimental effect of interest, at that voxel, is computed, giving an image of statistics ..."
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Cited by 396 (9 self)
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The statistical analyses of functional mapping experiments usually proceeds at the voxel level, involving the formation and assessment of a statistic image: at each voxel a statistic indicating evidence of the experimental effect of interest, at that voxel, is computed, giving an image of statistics, a statistic
A new method for nonparametric multivariate analysis of variance in ecology.
 Austral Ecology,
, 2001
"... Abstract Hypothesistesting methods for multivariate data are needed to make rigorous probability statements about the effects of factors and their interactions in experiments. Analysis of variance is particularly powerful for the analysis of univariate data. The traditional multivariate analogues, ..."
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Cited by 368 (4 self)
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Abstract Hypothesistesting methods for multivariate data are needed to make rigorous probability statements about the effects of factors and their interactions in experiments. Analysis of variance is particularly powerful for the analysis of univariate data. The traditional multivariate analogues, however, are too stringent in their assumptions for most ecological multivariate data sets. Nonparametric methods, based on permutation tests, are preferable. This paper describes a new nonparametric method for multivariate analysis of variance, after McArdle and Anderson (in press). It is given here, with several applications in ecology, to provide an alternative and perhaps more intuitive formulation for ANOVA (based on sums of squared distances) to complement the description provided by McArdle and Anderson (in press) for the analysis of any linear model. It is an improvement on previous nonparametric methods because it allows a direct additive partitioning of variation for complex models. It does this while maintaining the flexibility and lack of formal assumptions of other nonparametric methods. The teststatistic is a multivariate analogue to Fisher's Fratio and is calculated directly from any symmetric distance or dissimilarity matrix. Pvalues are then obtained using permutations. Some examples of the method are given for tests involving several factors, including factorial and hierarchical (nested) designs and tests of interactions.
Analysis of variance for gene expression microarray data
 Journal of Computational Biology
, 2000
"... Spotted cDNA microarrays are emerging as a powerful and costeffective tool for largescale analysis of gene expression. Microarrays can be used to measure the relative quantities of speci � c mRNAs in two or more tissue samples for thousands of genes simultaneously. While the power of this technolog ..."
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Cited by 362 (5 self)
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Spotted cDNA microarrays are emerging as a powerful and costeffective tool for largescale analysis of gene expression. Microarrays can be used to measure the relative quantities of speci � c mRNAs in two or more tissue samples for thousands of genes simultaneously. While the power of this technology has been recognized, many open questions remain about appropriate analysis of microarray data. One question is how to make valid estimates of the relative expression for genes that are not biased by ancillary sources of variation. Recognizing that there is inherent “noise ” in microarray data, how does one estimate the error variation associated with an estimated change in expression, i.e., how does one construct the error bars? We demonstrate that ANOVA methods can be used to normalize microarray data and provide estimates of changes in gene expression that are corrected for potential confounding effects. This approach establishes a framework for the general analysis and interpretation of microarray data. Key words: Gene expression microarray, differential expression, analysis of variance, bootstrap.
Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence
 in Parametric Causal Inference,” Political Analysis
, 2007
"... Although published works rarely include causal estimates from more than a few model specifications, authors usually choose the presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers never see. Given the often large variation in estimates across choices of control variables, functional forms, and other ..."
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Cited by 334 (46 self)
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Although published works rarely include causal estimates from more than a few model specifications, authors usually choose the presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers never see. Given the often large variation in estimates across choices of control variables, functional forms, and other modeling assumptions, how can researchers ensure that the few estimates presented are accurate or representative? How do readers know that publications are not merely demonstrations that it is possible to find a specification that fits the author’s favorite hypothesis? And how do we evaluate or even define statistical properties like unbiasedness or mean squared error when no unique model or estimator even exists? Matching methods, which offer the promise of causal inference with fewer assumptions, constitute one possible way forward, but crucial results in this fastgrowing methodological
A Theory Of Inferred Causation
, 1991
"... This paper concerns the empirical basis of causation, and addresses the following issues: 1. the clues that might prompt people to perceive causal relationships in uncontrolled observations. 2. the task of inferring causal models from these clues, and 3. whether the models inferred tell us anything ..."
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Cited by 254 (38 self)
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This paper concerns the empirical basis of causation, and addresses the following issues: 1. the clues that might prompt people to perceive causal relationships in uncontrolled observations. 2. the task of inferring causal models from these clues, and 3. whether the models inferred tell us anything useful about the causal mechanisms that underly the observations. We propose a minimalmodel semantics of causation, and show that, contrary to common folklore, genuine causal influences can be distinguished from spurious covariations following standard norms of inductive reasoning. We also establish a sound characterization of the conditions under which such a distinction is possible. We provide an effective algorithm for inferred causation and show that, for a large class of data the algorithm can uncover the direction of causal influences as defined above. Finally, we address the issue of nontemporal causation.
Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty
, 1995
"... this paper I discuss a Bayesian approach to solving this problem that has long been available in principle but is only now becoming routinely feasible, by virtue of recent computational advances, and examine its implementation in examples that involve forecasting the price of oil and estimating the ..."
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Cited by 231 (0 self)
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this paper I discuss a Bayesian approach to solving this problem that has long been available in principle but is only now becoming routinely feasible, by virtue of recent computational advances, and examine its implementation in examples that involve forecasting the price of oil and estimating the chance of catastrophic failure of the U.S. Space Shuttle.