Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

Image understanding requires not only individually estimating elements of the visual world but also capturing the interplay among them. In this paper, we provide a framework for placing local object detection in the context of the overall 3D scene by modeling the interdependence of objects, surface orientations, and camera viewpoint. Most object detection methods consider all scales and locations in the image as equally likely. We show that with probabilistic estimates of 3D geometry, both in terms of surfaces and world coordinates, we can put objects into perspective and model the scale and location variance in the image. Our approach reflects the cyclical nature of the problem by allowing probabilistic object hypotheses to refine geometry and vice-versa. Our framework allows painless substitution of almost any object detector and is easily extended to include other aspects of image understanding. Our results confirm the benefits of our integrated approach. 1.

It has been widely observed that there is no single “dominant ” SAT solver; instead, different solvers perform best on different instances. Rather than following the traditional approach of choosing the best solver for a given class of instances, we advocate making this decision online on a per-instance basis. Building on previous work, we describe SATzilla, an automated approach for constructing per-instance algorithm portfolios for SAT that use so-called empirical hardness models to choose among their constituent solvers. This approach takes as input a distribution of problem instances and a set of component solvers, and constructs a portfolio optimizing a given objective function (such as mean runtime, percent of instances solved, or score in a competition). The excellent performance of our SATzilla portfolios has been independently verified in the 2007 SAT Competition, where our SATzilla-07 solvers won three gold, one silver and one bronze medal. In this article, we go well beyond SATzilla-07 by making the portfolio construction scalable and completely automated, and improving it by integrating local search solvers as candidate solvers, by predicting performance score instead of runtime, and by using hierarchical hardness models that take into account different types of SAT instances. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these new techniques in extensive experimental results on data sets including instances from the most recent SAT competition. 1.

Side-chain prediction is an important subtask in the protein-folding problem. We show that finding a minimal energy side-chain configuration is equivalent to performing inference in an undirected graphical model. The graphical model is relatively sparse yet has many cycles. We used this equivalence to assess the performance of approximate inference algorithms in a real-world setting. Specifically we compared belief propagation (BP), generalized BP (GBP) and naive mean field (MF). In cases where exact inference was possible, max-product BP always found the global minimum of the energy (except in few cases where it failed to converge), while other approximation algorithms of similar complexity did not. In the full protein data set, maxproduct BP always found a lower energy configuration than the other algorithms, including a widely used protein-folding software (SCWRL). 1

In this paper, we address the problem of extending a relational database system to facilitate efficient real-time application of dynamic probabilistic models to streaming data. We use the recently proposed abstraction of model-based views for this purpose, by allowing users to declaratively specify the model to be applied, and by presenting the output of the models to the user as a probabilistic database view. We support declarative querying over such views using an extended version of SQL that allows for querying probabilistic data. Underneath we use particle filters, a class of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms commonly used to implement dynamic probabilistic models, to represent the present and historical states of the model as sets of weighted samples (particles) that are kept up-to-date as new readings arrive. We develop novel techniques to convert the queries on the model-based view directly into queries over particle tables, enabling highly efficient query processing. Finally, we present experimental evaluation of our prototype implementation over sensor data from the Intel Lab dataset that demonstrates the feasibility of online modeling of streaming data using our system and establishes the advantages of such tight integration between dynamic probabilistic models and database systems. 1

The problem of finding the most probable (MAP) configuration in graphical models comes up in a wide range of applications. In a general graphical model this problem is NP hard, but various approximate algorithms have been developed. Linear programming (LP) relaxations are a standard method in computer science for approximating combinatorial problems and have been used for finding the most probable assignment in small graphical models. However, applying this powerful method to real-world problems is extremely challenging due to the large numbers of variables and constraints in the linear program. Tree-Reweighted Belief Propagation is a promising recent algorithm for solving LP relaxations, but little is known about its running time on large problems. In this paper we compare tree-reweighted belief propagation (TRBP) and powerful generalpurpose LP solvers (CPLEX) on relaxations of real-world graphical models from the fields of computer vision and computational biology. We find that TRBP almost always finds the solution significantly faster than all the solvers in CPLEX and more importantly, TRBP can be applied to large scale problems for which the solvers in CPLEX cannot be applied. Using TRBP we can find the MAP configurations in a matter of minutes for a large range of real world problems. 1.

Multi-target tracking requires locating the targets and labeling their identities. The latter is a challenge when many targets, with indistinct appearances, frequently occlude one another, as in football and surveillance tracking. We present an approach to solving this labeling problem. When isolated, a target can be tracked and its identity maintained. While, if targets interact this is not always the case. This paper assumes a track graph exists, denoting when targets are isolated and describing how they interact. Measures of similarity between isolated tracks are defined. The goal is to associate the identities of the isolated tracks, by exploiting the graph constraints and similarity measures. We formulate this as a Bayesian network inference problem, allowing us to use standard message propagation to find the most probable set of paths in an efficient way. The high complexity inevitable in large problems is gracefully reduced by removing dependency links between tracks. We apply the method to a 10 min sequence of an international football game and compare results to ground truth. 1.

Loopy belief propagation (BP) has been successfully used in a number of difficult graphical models to find the most probable configuration of the hidden variables. In applications ranging from protein folding to image analysis one would like to find not just the best configuration but rather the top M. While this problem has been solved using the junction tree formalism, in many real world problems the clique size in the junction tree is prohibitively large. In this work we address the problem of finding the M best configurations when exact inference is impossible. We start by developing a new exact inference algorithm for calculating the best configurations that uses only max-marginals. For approximate inference, we replace the max-marginals with the beliefs calculated using max-product BP and generalized BP. We show empirically that the algorithm can accurately and rapidly approximate the M best configurations in graphs with hundreds of variables. 1

Loopy and generalized belief propagation are popular algorithms for approximate inference in Markov random fields and Bayesian networks. Fixed points of these algorithms have been shown to correspond to extrema of the Bethe and Kikuchi free energy, both of which are approximations of the exact Helmholtz free energy. However, belief propagation does not always converge, which motivates approaches that explicitly minimize the Kikuchi/Bethe free energy, such as CCCP and UPS. Here we describe a class of algorithms that solves this typically non-convex constrained minimization problem through a sequence of convex constrained minimizations of upper bounds on the Kikuchi free energy. Intuitively one would expect tighter bounds to lead to faster algorithms, which is indeed convincingly demonstrated in our simulations. Several ideas are applied to obtain tight convex bounds that yield dramatic speed-ups over CCCP.

this report. Kautz [79] modeled plan recognition logically in a manner that allowed goals and plans to be described at various levels of abstraction. Etzioni et al. [94, 95, 92, 93] developed a version space algorithm for plan recognition that is provably sound and polynomial time [94, 93]. Weld et al. developed goal recognition algorithms using inductive logic programming [90] and version-space algebra [89, 168, 88] in the context of programming by demonstration