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Road traffic injuries in developing countries: a comprehensive review of epidemiological studies. Trop Med Int Health
, 1997
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Freeway speed limits and traffic fatalities in washington state.
- Accident Analysis and Prevention,
, 2002
"... Abstract Background: In 1987 individual states in the USA were allowed to raise speed limits on rural freeways from 55 to 65 mph. Analyses of the impact of the increased speed limits on highway safety have produced conflicting results. Objecti6e: To determine if the 1987 speed limit increase on Was ..."
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Abstract Background: In 1987 individual states in the USA were allowed to raise speed limits on rural freeways from 55 to 65 mph. Analyses of the impact of the increased speed limits on highway safety have produced conflicting results. Objecti6e: To determine if the 1987 speed limit increase on Washington State's rural freeways affected the incidence of fatal crashes or all crashes on rural freeways, or affected average vehicle speeds or speed variance. Design: An ecological study of crashes and vehicle speeds on Washington State freeways from 1974 through 1994. Results: The incidence of fatal crashes more than doubled after 1987, compared with what would have been expected if there had been no speed limit increase, rate ratio 2.1 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6-2.7). This resulted in an excess of 26.4 deaths per year on rural freeways in Washington State. The total crash rate did not change substantially, rate ratio 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0-1.3). Average vehicle speed increased by 5.5 mph. Speed variance was not affected by the speed limit increase. Conclusions: The speed limit increase was associated with a higher fatal crash rate and more deaths on freeways in Washington State.
Freeway Speeds and Speed Variations Preceding Crashes, Within and Across Lanes
- Proceedings of 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting
, 2004
"... Key Words: Speed models, speed variation, freeway crash conditions Relationships between speed choice and crash occurrence have been difficult to identify. This work examines vehicle speeds (and their variations) derived from single loop detectors for several Southern California freeways, within and ..."
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Key Words: Speed models, speed variation, freeway crash conditions Relationships between speed choice and crash occurrence have been difficult to identify. This work examines vehicle speeds (and their variations) derived from single loop detectors for several Southern California freeways, within and across freeway lanes, together with corresponding crash data. While a variety of factors clearly influence speed and speed variance, there is no evidence in these crash data sets, and observations of their corresponding series of 30-second traffic conditions, that speeds or their variation trigger crashes. BACKGROUND In the United States and elsewhere, traffic crashes claim more human years than any other incident or disease. They also result in tremendous property losses. U.S. crash costs for the year 2000 are estimated to well exceed $200 billion per year, with roughly a quarter of this from property damage (Blincoe 2002). These same crashes claimed 42,636 lives in 2004 (USDOT 2005). Driver behavior, roadway design, weather and other factors all play a role in crashes. The most debated component is probably driver behavior, in the form of speed choices. While it is well understood that higher impact speeds produce more severe crashes (Joksch 1993, Kockelman and Kweon 2002, and
Safety effects of speed limit changes: Use of panel models, including speed, use, and design variables. Transportation Research Record No
- Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington D.C. (January 2005), and forthcoming in Transportation Research Record.Lee, J., and Mannering, F.L
, 2005
"... This work estimates the total safety effects of speed limit changes on high-speed roadways using traffic detector data and Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data from 1993 to 1996. In order to gauge the total effects, this study applies a sequential modeling approach in which average speed an ..."
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This work estimates the total safety effects of speed limit changes on high-speed roadways using traffic detector data and Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data from 1993 to 1996. In order to gauge the total effects, this study applies a sequential modeling approach in which average speed and speed variance models are first estimated, based on roadway design, use and speed limit information. Then, crash counts (of varying severity) are estimated, based on the speed estimates, design, and use variables. The four years of data come from 63,937 “homogeneous ” roadway segments along 7 interstates and 143 state highways in Washington State. A random-effects negative binomial model was selected among several alternative panel and non-panel models for count data. Results indicate that the average road segment in the data set can be expected to exhibit lower non-fatal crash rates up to a 55 mph speed limit. By contrast, fatality rates appear unresponsive to speed limit changes. Fatal and non-fatal rates fall for design reasons, including wider shoulders and more gradual curves, which appear to be key design variables. However, fatal and non-fatal rates move differently when traffic levels rise, with non-fatal rates remaining unchanged and fatal rates falling.
Implications of the 65-mph Speed Limit for Traffic Safety
- Evaluation Review
, 1999
"... This study evaluates the impact of the 65-mph speed limit on traffic safety. Using data for the years 1981 to 1995 for all 50 states, a pooled time series analysis is conducted. Separate models are estimated for state fatality rates on four categories of roads: rural interstate highways, rural nonin ..."
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This study evaluates the impact of the 65-mph speed limit on traffic safety. Using data for the years 1981 to 1995 for all 50 states, a pooled time series analysis is conducted. Separate models are estimated for state fatality rates on four categories of roads: rural interstate highways, rural noninterstate roads, all roads except for rural interstate highways, and all roads. It is reported that the 65-mph speed limit increased fatality rates on rural interstate highways but was corre-lated with a reduction in state fatality rates on the three other categories of roads.
Spatially disaggregate panel models of crash and injury counts: the effect of speed limits and design
- Proceeding of the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, National Research Council
, 2004
"... This work statistically examines the impacts of the 1996 speed limit changes based on over 6,000 Washington State highway segments. Fixed-effects and random-effects Poisson and negative binomial regression specifications are employed to estimate six crash count measures during the 1993-1996 period. ..."
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This work statistically examines the impacts of the 1996 speed limit changes based on over 6,000 Washington State highway segments. Fixed-effects and random-effects Poisson and negative binomial regression specifications are employed to estimate six crash count measures during the 1993-1996 period. The modeled crash measures are the numbers of fatalities, injuries, crashes, fatal crashes, injury crashes, and property-damage-only (PDO) crashes. The average segment length is just 0.131 mile, permitting tight control of geometric characteristics, such as curvature and grade, as well as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). A 10 mph speed limit increase, typical of U.S. state policies pursued in the mid-1980s (on rural interstates) and in the mid-1990s, is estimated to increase fatalities and injuries by 78 and 24 percent, respectively, assuming other factors remain constant. Speed limit effects on total crashes (and property-damage-only crashes), however, are predicted to be slightly negative, suggesting that crashes become more severe, but not more common. As expected, tighter horizontal curves, fewer lanes, and lower traffic volumes (per lane) increase fatal and injurious crash rates.
Mandatory Seat Belt Laws in the States: A Study of Fatal and Severe Occupant Injuries," Evaluation Review
, 1996
"... This study examines the impact of mandatory seat belt laws on fatal and incapacitating injury rates in the states. Annual data for all 50 states for the period 1975-1991 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed. The general conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that seat belt laws s ..."
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This study examines the impact of mandatory seat belt laws on fatal and incapacitating injury rates in the states. Annual data for all 50 states for the period 1975-1991 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed. The general conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that seat belt laws significantly impact state fatal injury rates. Primary enforcement and all-seat coverage provisions appear to be particularly effective in reducing fatality rates. Traffic safety is an important issue for the states. In 1992 alone, 40,300 lives were lost in motor vehicle crashes (National Safety Council 1992, 1). Although this was the lowest total in over 30 years, motor vehicle crashes still rank among the leading causes of death in the nation. They are the leading cause of accidental deaths, accounting for approximately 49 % of all acciden-tal deaths in 1992 (National Safety Council 1992,1). Additionally, 2.2 million disabling injuries were suffered in traffic accidents during the same year. It is estimated that motor vehicle crashes account for an economic cost of over $156 billion annually (National Safety Council 1992, 1). During the past 2 decades, states have enacted numerous regulatory policies to increase the safety of their highways and roads. One notable effort has been the adoption of laws mandating the use of seat belts by drivers and passengers in motor vehicles. When properly used, seat belts have been
Chapter pages in book: (p. 121- 166) 3 Teens and Traffic Safety
, 2001
"... Hollywood has always portrayed teens and cars as a volatile mixture. Whether it was the game of chicken from Rebel without a Cause, the drag race in American Graffiti, or the misadventures with dad’s car in Risky Bus-iness and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, a teen behind the wheel of a car has al-ways mo ..."
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Hollywood has always portrayed teens and cars as a volatile mixture. Whether it was the game of chicken from Rebel without a Cause, the drag race in American Graffiti, or the misadventures with dad’s car in Risky Bus-iness and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, a teen behind the wheel of a car has al-ways moved the plot along to some calamitous event. Although movies are sometimes a poor barometer of what ails society, unfortunately in this case these depictions may not be too far from the truth. In 1997 alone, there were 10,208 motor-vehicle fatalities among young adults aged fifteen to twenty-four, accounting for roughly one-third of all deaths in this age group. Motor-vehicle fatalities are far and away the leading cause of death among young adults. The large fraction of deaths among young adults attributed to car travel is not entirely unexpected. Driving is an inherently risky activity, and the young rarely die of other nonviolent causes.1 Furthermore, teens are in-creasingly dependent on automobiles. In 1995, the average teen aged six-teen to nineteen traveled 11,500 miles in cars, many of them as the driver. This number is nearly double the value for 1983, when teens traveled an average of only 5,861 miles per year in cars.2 However, although a certain Thomas S. Dee is assistant professor of economics at Swarthmore College. William N. Evans is professor of economics at the University of Maryland, a research associate of the
simulations related to speed limit reduction and traffic re-allocation in the
"... Quantitative health impact assessment of transport policies – two ..."
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