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Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and Aggregate
, 2014
"... The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and e¤ects of uctuations in the disper-sion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the e¤ec ..."
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The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and e¤ects of uctuations in the disper-sion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the e¤ect of exogenous
rst- and second-moment shocks to producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogeneous producers and an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause endogenous uctuations in producer-level dis-persion by reallocating production internationally, while second-moment shocks lead to increases in trade relative to GDP in recessions. Empirically, using detailed product-level data in the motor vehicle industry and industry-level data of U.S. manufacturers, we
nd evidence that international reallocation is indeed important for understanding cross-industry variation in cyclical patterns of measured dispersion. JEL classi
cations: E31, F12.
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MICROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS
, 2014
"... Consequeneces of Uncertainty for helpful comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. This paper was prepared for the Carnegie ..."
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Consequeneces of Uncertainty for helpful comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. This paper was prepared for the Carnegie-NYU-Rochester conference series. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.