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By Force of Habit: A ConsumptionBased Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior
, 1999
"... We present a consumptionbased model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the longhorizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of ..."
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Cited by 1427 (68 self)
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We present a consumptionbased model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the longhorizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data. It explains the short and longrun equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant riskfree rate. The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly correlated with consumption. The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slowmoving external habit to the standard power utility function. These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia. The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia: Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of longrun average consumption growth.
Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles
 JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 1994
"... We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (i) a small longrun predictable component and (ii) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin’s (1989) preferences, can explain ke ..."
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Cited by 721 (54 self)
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We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (i) a small longrun predictable component and (ii) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin’s (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better longrun growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the riskfree rate, and the volatility of the market return, riskfree rate, and the pricedividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is timevarying.
Preference Parameters And Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach In The Health And Retirement Study
, 1997
"... This paper reports measures of preference parameters relating to risk tolerance, time preference, and intertemporal substitution. These measures are based on survey responses to hypothetical situations constructed using an economic theorist's concept of the underlying parameters. The individual ..."
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Cited by 524 (12 self)
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This paper reports measures of preference parameters relating to risk tolerance, time preference, and intertemporal substitution. These measures are based on survey responses to hypothetical situations constructed using an economic theorist's concept of the underlying parameters. The individual measures of preference parameters display heterogeneity. Estimated risk tolerance and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are essentially uncorrelated across individuals. Measured risk tolerance is positively related to risky behaviors, including smoking, drinking, failing to have insurance, and holding stocks rather than Treasury bills. These relationships are both statistically and quantitatively significant, although measured risk tolerance explains only a small fraction of the variation of the studied behaviors.
RARE DISASTERS AND ASSET MARKETS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY
 THE QUARTER JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 121, NO. 3
, 2006
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Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns
 THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI, NO. 3 • JUNE 2001
, 2001
"... This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treas ..."
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Cited by 303 (22 self)
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This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth ~human capital plus asset holdings! ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and
Limited asset market participation and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution
 Journal of Political Economy
, 2002
"... The paper presents empirical evidence based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey that accounting for limited asset market participation is important for estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Differences in estimates of the EIS between asset holders and non–asset holders are lar ..."
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Cited by 263 (8 self)
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The paper presents empirical evidence based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey that accounting for limited asset market participation is important for estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Differences in estimates of the EIS between asset holders and non–asset holders are large and statistically significant. This is the case whether estimating the EIS on the basis of the Euler equation for stock index returns or the Euler equation for Treasury bills, in each case distinguishing between asset holders and non–asset holders as best as possible. Estimates of the EIS are around 0.3–0.4 for stockholders and around 0.8–1 for bondholders and are larger for households with larger asset holdings within these two groups. I.
Optimal investment, growth options, and security returns
 Journal of Finance
, 1999
"... As a consequence of optimal investment choices, a firm’s assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm’s systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: ~ ..."
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Cited by 239 (10 self)
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As a consequence of optimal investment choices, a firm’s assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm’s systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: ~i! the timeseries relation between the booktomarket ratio and asset returns; ~ii! the crosssectional relation between booktomarket, market value, and return; ~iii! contrarian effects at short horizons; ~iv! momentum effects at longer horizons; and ~v! the inverse relation between interest rates and the market risk premium. RECENT EMPIRICAL RESEARCH IN FINANCE has focused on regularities in the cross section of expected returns that appear anomalous relative to traditional models. Stock returns are related to booktomarket, and market value. 1 Past returns have also been shown to predict relative performance, through the documented success of contrarian and momentum strategies. 2 Existing explanations for these results are that they are due to behavioral biases or risk premia for omitted state variables. 3 These competing explanations are difficult to evaluate without models that explicitly tie the characteristics of interest to risks and risk premia. For example, with respect to booktomarket, Lakonishok et al. ~1994! argue: “The point here is simple: although the returns to the B0M strategy are impressive, B0M is not a ‘clean ’ variable uniquely associated with eco
Consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle
, 2001
"... This paper solves a realistically calibrated lifecycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with uninsurable labor income risk and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We comput ..."
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Cited by 232 (19 self)
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This paper solves a realistically calibrated lifecycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with uninsurable labor income risk and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of the importance of nontradable human capital for investment behavior to find that ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, while the cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitude smaller. We also quantify the utility cost associated with typical heuristics advocated by financial advisors. The issue of portfolio choice over the lifecycle is encountered by every investor. Popular finance books (e.g. Malkiel, 1996) and financial counselors generally give the advice to shift the portfolio composition towards relatively safe assets, such as Tbills, and away from risky stocks as the investor grows older and reaches retirement. But what could be the economic
Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring LongRun Risk
, 2008
"... We characterize and measure a longterm riskreturn tradeoff for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This tradeoff features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis ..."
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Cited by 230 (31 self)
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We characterize and measure a longterm riskreturn tradeoff for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This tradeoff features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the longrun dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic valuation model and of the model cash flow dynamics.