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A Case of the Tyranny of Numbers, Economic Cycles and Methodology
"... The aim of this study is to examine the main sources of growth in Argentina for the period 1990-2004 in order to identify the dominant growth profile: either extensive, which is associated with factor accumulation and utilisation, or intensive, which is based on productivity gains. The study propose ..."
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The aim of this study is to examine the main sources of growth in Argentina for the period 1990-2004 in order to identify the dominant growth profile: either extensive, which is associated with factor accumulation and utilisation, or intensive, which is based on productivity gains. The study proposes a methodology for identifying gains in total factor productivity (TFP) net of short-run fluctuations in relative prices and cyclical changes in factor utilisation. When applying this methodology to Argentina in the period 1990-2004, we find that economic growth appears to be extensive during the whole period, biased towards capital accumulation and utilisation during the 1990s and biased towards labour input after the 2002 devaluation. These results raise doubts as to whether the Argentine economy is able to generate long-run productivity gains independent of composition and quality effects and cyclical changes in factors utilisation, gains that are needed to achieve sustainable long-run growth. DURING THE 1990S, LABOUR productivity grew at a robust pace in Argentina. It is widely
