Results 1  10
of
44
On Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling Methods for Bayesian Filtering
 STATISTICS AND COMPUTING
, 2000
"... In this article, we present an overview of methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions. These methods are of particular interest in Bayesian filtering for discrete time dynamic models that are typically nonlinear and nonGaussian. A general importance sampling framework is develop ..."
Abstract

Cited by 1051 (76 self)
 Add to MetaCart
(Show Context)
In this article, we present an overview of methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions. These methods are of particular interest in Bayesian filtering for discrete time dynamic models that are typically nonlinear and nonGaussian. A general importance sampling framework is developed that unifies many of the methods which have been proposed over the last few decades in several different scientific disciplines. Novel extensions to the existing methods are also proposed. We show in particular how to incorporate local linearisation methods similar to those which have previously been employed in the deterministic filtering literature; these lead to very effective importance distributions. Furthermore we describe a method which uses RaoBlackwellisation in order to take advantage of the analytic structure present in some important classes of statespace models. In a final section we develop algorithms for prediction, smoothing and evaluation of the likelihood in dynamic models.
Mixture Kalman filters
, 2000
"... In treating dynamic systems,sequential Monte Carlo methods use discrete samples to represent a complicated probability distribution and use rejection sampling, importance sampling and weighted resampling to complete the online `filtering' task. We propose a special sequential Monte Carlo metho ..."
Abstract

Cited by 224 (8 self)
 Add to MetaCart
(Show Context)
In treating dynamic systems,sequential Monte Carlo methods use discrete samples to represent a complicated probability distribution and use rejection sampling, importance sampling and weighted resampling to complete the online `filtering' task. We propose a special sequential Monte Carlo method,the mixture Kalman filter, which uses a random mixture of the Gaussian distributions to approximate a target distribution. It is designed for online estimation and prediction of conditional and partial conditional dynamic linear models,which are themselves a class of widely used nonlinear systems and also serve to approximate many others. Compared with a few available filtering methods including Monte Carlo methods,the gain in efficiency that is provided by the mixture Kalman filter can be very substantial. Another contribution of the paper is the formulation of many nonlinear systems into conditional or partial conditional linear form,to which the mixture Kalman filter can be applied. Examples in target tracking and digital communications are given to demonstrate the procedures proposed.
Particle Filters for State Estimation of Jump Markov Linear Systems
, 2001
"... Jump Markov linear systems (JMLS) are linear systems whose parameters evolve with time according to a finite state Markov chain. In this paper, our aim is to recursively compute optimal state estimates for this class of systems. We present efficient simulationbased algorithms called particle filter ..."
Abstract

Cited by 177 (15 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Jump Markov linear systems (JMLS) are linear systems whose parameters evolve with time according to a finite state Markov chain. In this paper, our aim is to recursively compute optimal state estimates for this class of systems. We present efficient simulationbased algorithms called particle filters to solve the optimal filtering problem as well as the optimal fixedlag smoothing problem. Our algorithms combine sequential importance sampling, a selection scheme, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. They use several variance reduction methods to make the most of the statistical structure of JMLS. Computer
An Algebraic Geometric Approach to the Identification of a Class of Linear Hybrid Systems
 In Proc. of IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
, 2003
"... We propose an algebraic geometric solution to the identification of a class of linear hybrid systems. We show that the identification of the model parameters can be decoupled from the inference of the hybrid state and the switching mechanism generating the transitions, hence we do not constraint the ..."
Abstract

Cited by 60 (15 self)
 Add to MetaCart
(Show Context)
We propose an algebraic geometric solution to the identification of a class of linear hybrid systems. We show that the identification of the model parameters can be decoupled from the inference of the hybrid state and the switching mechanism generating the transitions, hence we do not constraint the switches to be separated by a minimum dwell time. The decoupling is obtained from the socalled hybrid decoupling constraint, which establishes a connection between linear hybrid system identification, polynomial factorization and hyperplane clustering. In essence, we represent the number of discrete states n as the degree of a homogeneous polynomial p and the model parameters as factors of p. We then show that one can estimate n from a rank constraint on the data, the coe#cients of p from a linear system, and the model parameters from the derivatives of p. The solution is closed form if and only if n 4. Once the model parameters have been identified, the estimation of the hybrid state becomes a simpler problem. Although our algorithm is designed for noiseless data, we also present simulation results with noisy data. 1
Particle filters for mixture models with an unknown number of components
 Statistics and Computing
, 2003
"... We consider the analysis of data under mixture models where the number of components in the mixture is unknown. We concentrate on mixture Dirichlet process models, and in particular we consider such models under conjugate priors. This conjugacy enables us to integrate out many of the parameters in t ..."
Abstract

Cited by 59 (3 self)
 Add to MetaCart
We consider the analysis of data under mixture models where the number of components in the mixture is unknown. We concentrate on mixture Dirichlet process models, and in particular we consider such models under conjugate priors. This conjugacy enables us to integrate out many of the parameters in the model, and to discretize the posterior distribution. Particle filters are particularly well suited to such discrete problems, and we propose the use of the particle filter of Fearnhead and Clifford for this problem. The performance of this particle filter, when analyzing both simulated and real data from a Gaussian mixture model, is uniformly better than the particle filter algorithm of Chen and Liu. In many situations it outperforms a Gibbs Sampler. We also show how models without the required amount of conjugacy can be efficiently analyzed by the same particle filter algorithm.
Observability and Identifiability of Jump Linear Systems
 In Proc. of IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
, 2002
"... We analyze the observability of the continuous and discrete states of a class of linear hybrid systems. We derive rank conditions that the structural parameters of the model must satisfy in order for filtering and smoothing algorithms to operate correctly. We also study the identifiability of the mo ..."
Abstract

Cited by 59 (8 self)
 Add to MetaCart
(Show Context)
We analyze the observability of the continuous and discrete states of a class of linear hybrid systems. We derive rank conditions that the structural parameters of the model must satisfy in order for filtering and smoothing algorithms to operate correctly. We also study the identifiability of the model parameters by characterizing the set of models that produce the same output measurements. Finally, when the data are generated by a model in the class, we give conditions under which the true model can be identified.
A Survey of Maneuvering Target Tracking  Part V: MultipleModel Methods
, 2003
"... ... without addressing the socalled measurementorigin uncertainty. Part I and Part II deal with target motion models. Part III covers measurement models and associated techniques. Part IV is concerned with tracking techniques that are based on decisions regarding target maneuvers. This part surv ..."
Abstract

Cited by 52 (2 self)
 Add to MetaCart
... without addressing the socalled measurementorigin uncertainty. Part I and Part II deal with target motion models. Part III covers measurement models and associated techniques. Part IV is concerned with tracking techniques that are based on decisions regarding target maneuvers. This part surveys the multiplemodel methodsthe use of multiple models (and filters) simultaneouslywhich is the prevailing approach to maneuvering target tracking in the recent years. The survey is presented in a structured way, centered around three generations of algorithms: autonomous, cooperating, and variable structure. It emphasizes on the underpinning of each algorithm and covers various issues in algorithm design, application, and performance.
Sequential Monte Carlo Filters and Integrated Navigation
, 2002
"... In this thesis we consider recursive Bayesian estimation in general, and sequential Monte Carlo filters in particular, applied to integrated navigation. Based on a large number of simulations of the model, the sequential Monte Carlo lter, also referred to as particle filter, provides an empirical es ..."
Abstract

Cited by 46 (3 self)
 Add to MetaCart
In this thesis we consider recursive Bayesian estimation in general, and sequential Monte Carlo filters in particular, applied to integrated navigation. Based on a large number of simulations of the model, the sequential Monte Carlo lter, also referred to as particle filter, provides an empirical estimate of the full posterior probability density of the system. The particle filter provide a solution to the general nonlinear, nonGaussian ltering problem. The more nonlinear system, or the more nonGaussian noise, the more potential particle filters have. Although very promising even for highdimensional systems, sequential Monte Carlo methods suer from being more or less computer intensive. However, many systems can be divided into two parts, where the first part is nonlinear and the second is (almost) linear conditionally upon the first. By applying the particle filter only on the severly nonlinear part of lower dimension, the computational load can be significantly reduced. For the remaining conditionally (almost) linear part we apply (linearized) linear filters, such as the (extended) Kalman filter. From a
Building Robust Simulationbased Filters for Evolving Data Sets
, 1999
"... this paper we will focus on an alternative class of filters in which theoretical distributions on the state space are approximated by simulated random measures. The first goal in filter design is to produce a compact description of the posterior distribution of the state given all the observations a ..."
Abstract

Cited by 36 (0 self)
 Add to MetaCart
this paper we will focus on an alternative class of filters in which theoretical distributions on the state space are approximated by simulated random measures. The first goal in filter design is to produce a compact description of the posterior distribution of the state given all the observations available so far. A basic requirement is that this description should be readily updated as new data become available. A mechanism has therefore to be devised which enables the approximating random measure to evolve and adapt. 3 SIMULATION BASED FILTERS Simulation based filters have a long history in the engineering literature, dating back to the work of Handschin and Mayne (1969); Handschin (1970); Akashi and Kumamoto (1977). Doucet (1998) provides a comprehensive review of the material. Since the Kalman filter is essentially a Bayesian update formula, the theory of Bayesian time series analysis is directly relevant (West and Harrison, 1997). We take as our starting point the filter developed by Gordon (1993); Gordon et al. (1993). The essence of the method is contained in a paper by Rubin (1988) who proposed the Sampling Importance Resampling (SIR) algorithm for obtaining samples from a complex posterior distribution without recourse to MCMC. In the simple nondynamic case described by Rubin (1988), the method consists of sampling n observations from the prior distribution, attaching weights to the sampled points according to their likelihood, and then sampling with replacement from this weighted discrete distribution. As n ! 1, the resulting set of values then approximates a sample from the required posterior (Smith and Gelfand, 1992). In the dynamic version, proposed by Gordon et al. (1993), the SIR algorithm is applied repeatedly as new data are acquired. One can think of...
Hybrid estimation of complex systems
 IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics  Part B: Cybernetics
, 2004
"... Abstract—Modern automated systems evolve both continuously and discretely, and hence require estimation techniques that go well beyond the capability of a typical Kalman Filter. Multiple model (MM) estimation schemes track these system evolutions by applying a bank of filters, one for each discrete ..."
Abstract

Cited by 31 (8 self)
 Add to MetaCart
(Show Context)
Abstract—Modern automated systems evolve both continuously and discretely, and hence require estimation techniques that go well beyond the capability of a typical Kalman Filter. Multiple model (MM) estimation schemes track these system evolutions by applying a bank of filters, one for each discrete system mode. Modern systems, however, are often composed of many interconnected components that exhibit rich behaviors, due to complex, systemwide interactions. Modeling these systems leads to complex stochastic hybrid models that capture the large number of operational and failure modes. This large number of modes makes a typical MM estimation approach infeasible for online estimation. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of MM estimation, and then introduces an alternative hybrid estimation scheme that can efficiently estimate complex systems with large number of modes. It utilizes search techniques from the toolkit of modelbased reasoning in order to focus the estimation on the set of most likely modes, without missing symptoms that might be hidden amongst the system noise. In addition, we present a novel approach to hybrid estimation in the presence of unknown behavioral modes. This leads to an overall hybrid estimation scheme for complex systems that robustly copes with unforeseen situations in a degraded, but failsafe manner. Index Terms—Artificial intelligence, diagnosis, fault detection and isolation (FDI), hybrid systems, multiple model estimation. I.