Abstract — Many inference problems that arise in sensor networks require the computation of a global conclusion that is consistent with local information known to each node. A large class of these problems— including probabilistic inference, regression, and control problems—can be solved by message passing on a data structure called a junction tree. In this paper, we present a distributed architecture for solving these problems that is robust to unreliable communication and node failures. In this architecture, the nodes of the sensor network assemble themselves into a junction tree and exchange messages between neighbors to solve the inference problem efficiently and exactly. A key part of the architecture is an efficient distributed algorithm for optimizing the choice of junction tree to minimize the communication and computation required by inference. We present experimental results from a prototype implementation on a 97-node Mica2 mote network, as well as simulation results for three applications: distributed sensor calibration, optimal control, and sensor field modeling. These experiments demonstrate that our distributed architecture can solve many important inference problems exactly, efficiently, and robustly. I.

We present a new framework based on walks in a graph for analysis and inference in Gaussian graphical models. The key idea is to decompose the correlation between each pair of variables as a sum over all walks between those variables in the graph. The weight of each walk is given by a product of edge-wise partial correlation coefficients. This representation holds for a large class of Gaussian graphical models which we call walk-summable. We give a precise characterization of this class of models, and relate it to other classes including diagonally dominant, attractive, nonfrustrated, and pairwise-normalizable. We provide a walk-sum interpretation of Gaussian belief propagation in trees and of the approximate method of loopy belief propagation in graphs with cycles. The walk-sum perspective leads to a better understanding of Gaussian belief propagation and to stronger results for its convergence in loopy graphs.

: This article describes a propagation scheme for Bayesian networks with conditional Gaussian distributions that does not have the numerical weaknesses of the scheme derived in Lauritzen (1992). The propagation architecture is that of Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (1988). In addition to the means and variances provided by the previous algorithm, the new propagation scheme yields full local marginal distributions. The new scheme also handles linear deterministic relationships between continuous variables in the network specification. The new propagation scheme is in many ways faster and simpler than previous schemes and the method has been implemented in the most recent version of the HUGIN software. Key words: Artificial intelligence, Bayesian networks, CG distributions, Gaussian mixtures, probabilistic expert systems, propagation of evidence. 1 Introduction Bayesian networks have developed into an important tool for building systems for decision support in environments characterized by...

Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems. It has become clear that graphical models, in particular those based upon directed acyclic graphs, have natural causal interpretations and thus form a base for a language in which causal concepts can be discussed and analysed in precise terms. As a consequence there has been an explosion of writings, not primarily within mainstream statistical literature, concerned with the exploitation of this language to clarify and extend causal concepts. Among these we mention in particular books by Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines (1993), Shafer (1996), and Pearl (2000) as well as the collection of papers in Glymour and Cooper (1999). Very briefly, but fundamentally,

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Abstract. In this paper, we present a method for approximating the values of sensors in a wireless sensor network based on time series forecasting. More specifically, our approach relies on autoregressive models built at each sensor to predict local readings. Nodes transmit these local models to a sink node, which uses them to predict sensor values without directly communicating with sensors. When needed, nodes send information about outlier readings and model updates to the sink. We show that this approach can dramatically reduce the amount of communication required to monitor the readings of all sensors in a network, and demonstrate that our approach provides provably-correct, user-controllable error bounds on the predicted values of each sensor. 1

Finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment of a discrete-state distribution specified by a graphical model requires solving an integer program. The max-product algorithm, also known as the max-plus or min-sum algorithm, is an iterative method for (approximately) solving such a problem on graphs with cycles.

We present an algorithm that induces a class of models with thin junction trees---models that are characterized by an upper bound on the size of the maximal cliques of their triangulated graph. By ensuring that the junction tree is thin, inference in our models remains tractable throughout the learning process. This allows both an efficient implementation of an iterative scaling parameter estimation algorithm and also ensures that inference can be performed efficiently with the final model. We illustrate the approach with applications in handwritten digit recognition and DNA splice site detection.

We introduce the notion of LImited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) to describe multi-stage decision problems where the traditional assumption of no forgetting is relaxed. This can be relevant in situations with multiple decision makers or when decisions must be prescribed under memory constraints, such as e.g. in partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We give an algorithm for improving any given strategy by local computation of single policy updates and investigate conditions for the resulting strategy to be optimal. Key words: Local computation; message passing; optimal strategies; partially observed Markov decision process, single policy updating. To appear in Management Science. y Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, Fredrik Bajers Vej 7G, DK-9220 Aalborg, Denmark. 1 1

Learning patterns of human behavior from sensor data is extremely important for high-level activity inference. We show how to extract and label a person’s activities and significant places from traces of GPS data. In contrast to existing techniques, our approach simultaneously detects and classifies the significant locations of a person and takes the high-level context into account. Our system uses relational Markov networks to represent the hierarchical activity model that encodes the complex relations among GPS readings, activities and significant places. We apply FFT-based message passing to perform efficient summation over large numbers of nodes in the networks. We present experiments that show significant improvements over existing techniques. 1