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Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks”, manuscript (0)

by Hubert
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An Empirical Review of the Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage”, manuscript

by Paul Hubert, Paul Hubert , 2008
"... Imperfect information in favour of the central bank or the private sector has strong theoretical implications. The empirical literature has then already tried to assess the direction of the information asymmetry in the case of the Federal Reserve. Evidence, however, is mixed. The objective of this p ..."
Abstract - Cited by 2 (2 self) - Add to MetaCart
Imperfect information in favour of the central bank or the private sector has strong theoretical implications. The empirical literature has then already tried to assess the direction of the information asymmetry in the case of the Federal Reserve. Evidence, however, is mixed. The objective of this paper is therefore to gain some unambiguous outcomes by avoiding biases of methods, data and samples. The results are twofold: first, Fed possesses an informational advantage on inflation but only on it. There is no evidence of any advantage for private forecasters or Fed on real GNP/GDP; second, the longer the horizon, the more pronounced the advantage of Fed on inflation. Last, this advantage appears to stem from the specific expertness of the Fed and its institutional access to special information.
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