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Empirical exchange rate models of the Seventies: do they fit out of sample?
 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
, 1983
"... This study compares the outofsample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and tradeweighted dollar exch ..."
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Cited by 831 (12 self)
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This study compares the outofsample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and tradeweighted dollar exchange rates. The candidate structural models include the flexibleprice (FrenkelBilson) and stickyprice (DornbuschFrankel) monetary models, and a stickyprice model which incorporates the current account (HooperMorton). The structural models perform poorly despite the fact that we base their forecasts on actual realized values of future explanatory variables.
Evolving Artificial Neural Networks
, 1999
"... This paper: 1) reviews different combinations between ANN's and evolutionary algorithms (EA's), including using EA's to evolve ANN connection weights, architectures, learning rules, and input features; 2) discusses different search operators which have been used in various EA's; ..."
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Cited by 566 (6 self)
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This paper: 1) reviews different combinations between ANN's and evolutionary algorithms (EA's), including using EA's to evolve ANN connection weights, architectures, learning rules, and input features; 2) discusses different search operators which have been used in various EA's; and 3) points out possible future research directions. It is shown, through a considerably large literature review, that combinations between ANN's and EA's can lead to significantly better intelligent systems than relying on ANN's or EA's alone
Survey of clustering algorithms
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS
, 2005
"... Data analysis plays an indispensable role for understanding various phenomena. Cluster analysis, primitive exploration with little or no prior knowledge, consists of research developed across a wide variety of communities. The diversity, on one hand, equips us with many tools. On the other hand, the ..."
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Cited by 483 (4 self)
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Data analysis plays an indispensable role for understanding various phenomena. Cluster analysis, primitive exploration with little or no prior knowledge, consists of research developed across a wide variety of communities. The diversity, on one hand, equips us with many tools. On the other hand, the profusion of options causes confusion. We survey clustering algorithms for data sets appearing in statistics, computer science, and machine learning, and illustrate their applications in some benchmark data sets, the traveling salesman problem, and bioinformatics, a new field attracting intensive efforts. Several tightly related topics, proximity measure, and cluster validation, are also discussed.
A fast and flexible statistical model for largescale population genotype data: Applications to inferring missing genotypes and haplotype phase
 American Journal of Human Genetics
, 2005
"... We present a statistical model for patterns of genetic variation in samples of unrelated individuals from natural populations. This model is based on the idea that, over short regions, haplotypes in a population tend to cluster into groups of similar haplotypes. To capture the fact that, because of ..."
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Cited by 399 (10 self)
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We present a statistical model for patterns of genetic variation in samples of unrelated individuals from natural populations. This model is based on the idea that, over short regions, haplotypes in a population tend to cluster into groups of similar haplotypes. To capture the fact that, because of recombination, this clustering tends to be local in nature, our model allows cluster memberships to change continuously along the chromosome according to a hidden Markov model. This approach is flexible, allowing for both “blocklike ” patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) and gradual decline in LD with distance. The resulting model is also fast and, as a result, is practicable for large data sets (e.g., thousands of individuals typed at hundreds of thousands of markers). We illustrate the utility of the model by applying it to dense singlenucleotide–polymorphism genotype data for the tasks of imputing missing genotypes and estimating haplotypic phase. For imputing missing genotypes, methods based on this model are as accurate or more accurate than existing methods. For haplotype estimation, the point estimates are slightly less accurate than those from the best existing methods (e.g., for unrelated Centre d’Etude du Polymorphisme Humain individuals from the HapMap project, switch error was 0.055 for our method vs. 0.051 for PHASE) but require a small fraction of the computational cost. In addition, we demonstrate that the model accurately reflects uncertainty in its estimates, in that probabilities computed using the model are approximately well calibrated. The methods described in this article are implemented in a software package, fastPHASE, which is available from the
Model Selection and Model Averaging in Phylogenetics: Advantages of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Approaches Over Likelihood Ratio Tests
, 2004
"... Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the sel ..."
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Cited by 378 (8 self)
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Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (modelaveraged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AICbased model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus (genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).
A neuropsychological theory of multiple systems in category learning
 PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW
, 1998
"... A neuropsychological theory is proposed that assumes category learning is a competition between separate verbal and implicit (i.e., procedurallearningbased) categorization systems. The theory assumes that the caudate nucleus is an important component of the implicit system and that the anterior ci ..."
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Cited by 328 (30 self)
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A neuropsychological theory is proposed that assumes category learning is a competition between separate verbal and implicit (i.e., procedurallearningbased) categorization systems. The theory assumes that the caudate nucleus is an important component of the implicit system and that the anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortices are critical to the verbal system. In addition to making predictions for normal human adults, the theory makes specific predictions for children, elderly people, and patients suffering from Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease, major depression, amnesia, or lesions of the prefrontal cortex. Two separate formal descriptions of the theory are also provided. One describes trialbytrial learning, and the other describes global dynamics. The theory is tested on published neuropsychological data and on category learning data with normal adults.
Deterministic Annealing for Clustering, Compression, Classification, Regression, and Related Optimization Problems
 Proceedings of the IEEE
, 1998
"... this paper. Let us place it within the neural network perspective, and particularly that of learning. The area of neural networks has greatly benefited from its unique position at the crossroads of several diverse scientific and engineering disciplines including statistics and probability theory, ph ..."
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Cited by 318 (20 self)
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this paper. Let us place it within the neural network perspective, and particularly that of learning. The area of neural networks has greatly benefited from its unique position at the crossroads of several diverse scientific and engineering disciplines including statistics and probability theory, physics, biology, control and signal processing, information theory, complexity theory, and psychology (see [45]). Neural networks have provided a fertile soil for the infusion (and occasionally confusion) of ideas, as well as a meeting ground for comparing viewpoints, sharing tools, and renovating approaches. It is within the illdefined boundaries of the field of neural networks that researchers in traditionally distant fields have come to the realization that they have been attacking fundamentally similar optimization problems.
Hidden Markov processes
 IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory
, 2002
"... Abstract—An overview of statistical and informationtheoretic aspects of hidden Markov processes (HMPs) is presented. An HMP is a discretetime finitestate homogeneous Markov chain observed through a discretetime memoryless invariant channel. In recent years, the work of Baum and Petrie on finite ..."
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Cited by 258 (5 self)
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Abstract—An overview of statistical and informationtheoretic aspects of hidden Markov processes (HMPs) is presented. An HMP is a discretetime finitestate homogeneous Markov chain observed through a discretetime memoryless invariant channel. In recent years, the work of Baum and Petrie on finitestate finitealphabet HMPs was expanded to HMPs with finite as well as continuous state spaces and a general alphabet. In particular, statistical properties and ergodic theorems for relative entropy densities of HMPs were developed. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximumlikelihood (ML) parameter estimator were proved under some mild conditions. Similar results were established for switching autoregressive processes. These processes generalize HMPs. New algorithms were developed for estimating the state, parameter, and order of an HMP, for universal coding and classification of HMPs, and for universal decoding of hidden Markov channels. These and other related topics are reviewed in this paper. Index Terms—Baum–Petrie algorithm, entropy ergodic theorems, finitestate channels, hidden Markov models, identifiability, Kalman filter, maximumlikelihood (ML) estimation, order estimation, recursive parameter estimation, switching autoregressive processes, Ziv inequality. I.
Advanced Spectral Methods for Climatic Time Series
, 2001
"... The analysis of uni or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical eld of ..."
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Cited by 220 (35 self)
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The analysis of uni or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical eld of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory.
Evaluating the fit of structural equation models: Tests of significance and descriptive goodnessoffit measures
 Methods of Psychological Research
, 2003
"... For structural equation models, a huge variety of fit indices has been developed. These indices, however, can point to conflicting conclusions about the extent to which a model actually matches the observed data. The present article provides some guidelines that should help applied researchers to e ..."
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Cited by 211 (1 self)
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For structural equation models, a huge variety of fit indices has been developed. These indices, however, can point to conflicting conclusions about the extent to which a model actually matches the observed data. The present article provides some guidelines that should help applied researchers to evaluate the adequacy of a given structural equation model. First, as goodnessoffit measures depend on the method used for parameter estimation, maximum likelihood (ML) and weighted least squares (WLS) methods are introduced in the context of structural equation modeling. Then, the most common goodnessoffit indices are discussed and some recommendations for practitioners given. Finally, we generated an artificial data set according to a "true" model and analyzed two misspecified and two correctly specified models as examples of poor model fit, adequate fit, and good fit.