Results 1 - 10
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30
UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation and Environmental Planning
- JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION
, 2002
"... Metropolitan areas have come under intense pressure to respond to federal mandates to link planning of land use, transportation, and environmental quality; and from citizen concerns about managing the side effects of growth such as sprawl, congestion, housing affordability, and loss of open space. T ..."
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Cited by 162 (15 self)
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Metropolitan areas have come under intense pressure to respond to federal mandates to link planning of land use, transportation, and environmental quality; and from citizen concerns about managing the side effects of growth such as sprawl, congestion, housing affordability, and loss of open space. The planning models used by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) were generally not designed to address these questions, creating a gap in the ability of planners to systematically assess these issues. UrbanSim is a new model system that has been developed to respond to these emerging requirements, and has now been applied in three metropolitan areas. This paper describes the model system and its application to Eugene-Springfield, Oregon.
How (In)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?”
- Journal of the American
, 2005
"... Abstract This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical signi ..."
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Cited by 76 (6 self)
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Abstract This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20 percent. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The article shows how planners may help achieve this.
An extensible, modular architecture for simulating urban development, transportation, and environmental impacts
, 2000
"... UrbanSim simulates the development of urban areas, including land use, transportation, and environmental impacts, over periods of twenty or more years. Its purpose is to aid urban planners, residents, and elected officials in evaluating the long-term results of alternate plans, particularly as they ..."
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Cited by 40 (16 self)
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UrbanSim simulates the development of urban areas, including land use, transportation, and environmental impacts, over periods of twenty or more years. Its purpose is to aid urban planners, residents, and elected officials in evaluating the long-term results of alternate plans, particularly as they relate to such things as housing, business and economic development, sprawl, open space, traffic congestion, and resource consumption. From a software perspective, it is a large, complex, system, with heavy demands for excellent space efficiency and support for software evolution. It consists of a collection of models that represent different urban actors and processes, an object store that holds the state of the simulated urban environment, a model coordinator that schedules models to run and notifies them when data of interest has changed, and a translation and aggregation layer that performs a range of data conversions to mediate between the object store and the models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned regarding implicit invocation, object storage, and automatic code generation that yield acceptable space and time efficiency, as well as support for software evolution, within this architectural framework.
A case study in digital government: Developing and applying UrbanSim, a system for simulating urban land use, transportation, and environmental impacts
- Social Science Computer Review
, 2004
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Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts
- Transport Reviews
, 2006
"... ABSTRACT This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical signific ..."
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Cited by 16 (0 self)
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ABSTRACT This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. For nine out of ten rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106%. For 72 % of rail projects, forecasts are overestimated by more than two-thirds. For 50 % of road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%; for 25 % of road projects, the difference is larger than ±40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both rail and road projects, the risk is substantial that demand forecasts are incorrect by a large margin. The causes of inaccuracy
Federal Transportation Policy and the Role of Metropolitan Planning Organizations in California
, 1997
"... sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, to be quoted without written permission, provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. Foreword The reauthorization of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) in 1997 ra ..."
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Cited by 15 (3 self)
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sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, to be quoted without written permission, provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. Foreword The reauthorization of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) in 1997 raises three issues of great importance to California—how many dollars will the state receive from future transportation programs? Who will pay the cost? And what level of government will distribute the benefits? In this report, Federal Transportation Policy and the Role of Metropolitan Planning Organizations in California, Paul Lewis and Mary Sprague focus on the third issue—the role metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) have played in setting project priorities under the current transportation legislation. The authors conclude that metropolitan-level decisionmaking generates a distinctly different set of priorities than found at either the state or local level, and that the role of MPOs should be considered carefully when reauthorization of ISTEA takes place in Washington later this year.
1998b] “An Urban Simulation Model for Integrated Policy Analysis and Planning: Residential Location and Housing
- Market components of UrbanSim”, presented at the 8th World Conference on Transportation Research
"... Over the past several years we have observed increased public interest in mitigating the consequences of urban sprawl and making more systematic metropolitan plans that encompass land use, transportation and environmental dimensions. The connections between these domains are now readily apparent to ..."
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Cited by 9 (0 self)
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Over the past several years we have observed increased public interest in mitigating the consequences of urban sprawl and making more systematic metropolitan plans that encompass land use, transportation and environmental dimensions. The connections between these domains are now readily apparent to the casual observer, and the public increasingly expects policies and plans in these arenas to be made consistent in shaping a sustainable path of urban development. Unfortunately, the analytical tools available to planners and policymakers have lagged far behind the public will to develop coherent metropolitan plans and policies, leaving decision makers inadequately prepared to anticipate the potential consequences of alternative policy initiatives or infrastructure choices. In fact, the policy creation process at times leads to rather contradictory, or at least poorly integrated policy objectives. More often than not, the market effects and constraints of policy initiatives are given insufficient attention or are misunderstood. Overarching these concerns is the increasing fragmentation and polarization of public opinion about the basic goals of urban public policy over issues such as environmental preservation, economic development, quality of life, and social equity. Increasing public scrutiny of the political and
Megaproject policy and planning: problems causes, cures
, 2007
"... Megaprojekters politik og planlægning: ..."
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Analytical Tools for Land Use, Transportation and Growth Management
"... planning, metropolitan development, and urban simulation. DRAFT: comments welcome – please do not cite without permission from the author. ..."
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Cited by 2 (0 self)
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planning, metropolitan development, and urban simulation. DRAFT: comments welcome – please do not cite without permission from the author.
CONTEXT AND PROSPECTS FOR INTEGRATED URBAN MODELS FOR METROPOLITAN POLICY ANALYSIS AND PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF METRO MANILA
"... Abstract: Metropolitan areas in the developing world face a pressing need for policy tools to evaluate urban development strategies. This need, placed within the context of fiscal restraint, sustainable development, and public administrative regimes, has kindled an interest in the use of “integrated ..."
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Cited by 2 (0 self)
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Abstract: Metropolitan areas in the developing world face a pressing need for policy tools to evaluate urban development strategies. This need, placed within the context of fiscal restraint, sustainable development, and public administrative regimes, has kindled an interest in the use of “integrated urban models ” (IUM) that explicitly consider urban transportation and land use interactions. While the development and use of these models has helped science to better understand urban processes, they can only be useful to society as a whole if used to inform policy making and analysis. The objective of this paper is to put into perspective the necessary conditions for the formulation of an IUM useful for policy and planning in developing countries taking the case of Metro Manila. The paper frames the steps needed for development and application of a model of this type in the area.
