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"... Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition ..."
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Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition
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"... The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. T ..."
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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint, please send a request with complete information to the
A Tale Of Two Transition Paths?
"... Despite a common parentage for most of the 20 century, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan followed seemingly different paths in transition. Whereas Uzbekistan adopted a gradual and cautious approach to market reforms, Kazakhstan followed a more aggressive strategy. Yet, while Kazakhstan may have achie ..."
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Despite a common parentage for most of the 20 century, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan followed seemingly different paths in transition. Whereas Uzbekistan adopted a gradual and cautious approach to market reforms, Kazakhstan followed a more aggressive strategy. Yet, while Kazakhstan may have achieved a better policy environment today, its overall economic performance has not been better than Uzbekistan's. This paper examines the interplay between policies, institutions, and initial conditions, to examine several competing and complementary hypotheses about why they may have led to different macroeconomic outcomes.
CHAPTER 3 Understanding the Rise in Poverty: Initial Conditions, Institutional Legacies, and Policies
"... the overwhelming factor associated with poverty. Poverty is largely the result of bad labor market outcomes, such as the loss of a paying job, the failure to be paid for work completed, or insufficient income because of a lack of the skills needed to compete in the new, more market-oriented economy. ..."
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the overwhelming factor associated with poverty. Poverty is largely the result of bad labor market outcomes, such as the loss of a paying job, the failure to be paid for work completed, or insufficient income because of a lack of the skills needed to compete in the new, more market-oriented economy. For those who are not able to work—children and the elderly—poverty is linked to a decline in public transfers and other forms of income support, and to being one of many dependents living on few and low incomes. Similar causal forces underlie the rise in poverty in all ECA countries, namely the economic and social dislocation associated with transition, and the ensuing collapse in output and incomes. But poverty outcomes are vastly different across countries. Not only are the absolute levels of poverty different (chapter 1, table 1.1), but the characteristics of the poor vary also. In Central Europe, South Eastern Europe, and the Baltics (CSB), the risk of poverty is linked to well-identified household characteristics
t t Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence
"... This paper reviews a range of studies that examine differences in growth performance among transition countries. There is a consensus in the literature about the core elements of transition and the policies necessary for sustainable growth, although considerable differences remain about how to imple ..."
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This paper reviews a range of studies that examine differences in growth performance among transition countries. There is a consensus in the literature about the core elements of transition and the policies necessary for sustainable growth, although considerable differences remain about how to implement these policies and about their proper sequencing. The empirical work identifies stabilization and structural reforms (e.g., market liberalization, private ownership) as important determinants of growth, but underlines the role of initial conditions and institutions. There is divergent evidence, however, on the importance of specific reforms. Traditional factor inputs have as yet no role in explaining growth. [JEL O40, P20] The first comprehensive program of reforms in a centrally planned socialist economy is widely recognized to be Poland’s late 1989 package under the new Solidarity government. This dating permits analysts to think of a decade anniversary already in 1999 and certainly in 2000, hence the ensuing spate of 10-year conferences and retrospectives. More important than the decadal marking point is the reality that enough time has passed to allow substantial quantitative and qualitative observations, to see the variation in progress of transition toward the market, to note country differences in economic performance indicators such as GDP growth, exports, foreign investment, and to identify broadly the more successful and less successful cases. This paper addresses the narrow issue of growth in GDP, by providing a review of a growing literature explaining the differ-*Oleh Havrylyshyn is Deputy Director in the IMF’s European II Department. He thanks Ratna Sahay, Richard Haas, Bogdan Lissovolik, and Thomas Wolf for their useful comments; Bogdan Lissovolik for contributing considerable effort to preparation and verification of the tabular material; and Joan Campayne for an excellent job of text preparation. 53 ε+ ε> = y + β( P = P S
Suggested running head: Governance and Transition 1 How Governance Affects the Quality of Policy Reform and Economic Performance: New Evidence for Economies in Transition
"... This paper investigates the impact of governance on economic reform and performance in transition economies. The applied concept of governance allows the identification of institutional impediments to transition in a comparative way. The empirical analysis of the concept confirms the view that gover ..."
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This paper investigates the impact of governance on economic reform and performance in transition economies. The applied concept of governance allows the identification of institutional impediments to transition in a comparative way. The empirical analysis of the concept confirms the view that governance matters. The panel data set constructed for this study allows to identify three independent governance factors, each of which can help improve the quality of policy making. Moreover, the paper provides new evidence that governance matters mainly in an indirect way by identifying a causal relationship from good governance to more effective policy reforms and a more stable and market-enhancing institutional framework, which, in turn, lead to higher investment and economic gr owth.
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"... Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition ..."
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Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition
Economic Reform, Growth and Democracy During Post-communist Transition By: Jan Fidrmuc Working Paper No. 372 March 2001Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Postcommunist Transition *
, 2001
"... This paper explores interactions between growth, economic liberalization and democratization during transition. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Liberalization has a strong positive effect on growth during transition (also when controlling for endogeneity of liberalization in growth). ( ..."
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This paper explores interactions between growth, economic liberalization and democratization during transition. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Liberalization has a strong positive effect on growth during transition (also when controlling for endogeneity of liberalization in growth). (2) Democracy facilitates economic liberalization. (3) Because of its effect on liberalization, democracy has a positive overall effect on growth. Nevertheless, the marginal effect of democracy (after controlling for progress in economic liberalization) is negative during early transition. (4) The progress in democratization in turn depends on past economic performance in a surprising manner—the relationship between past growth and subsequent democracy appears negative. (5) Economic performance is an important determinant of electoral outcomes and, in particular, of
Is The Link Between Reforms And Growth Spurious? A Comment
, 2005
"... Rzońca and Ciżkowicz (2003) notice that by construction the reform indicators are bound from the above, and the resulting time series characteristics of these variables render estimates of coefficients in growth regressions spurious. We illustrate this issue further, applying econometric tests. Our ..."
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Rzońca and Ciżkowicz (2003) notice that by construction the reform indicators are bound from the above, and the resulting time series characteristics of these variables render estimates of coefficients in growth regressions spurious. We illustrate this issue further, applying econometric tests. Our main conclusions are the following: (i) joint use of contemporaneous and lagged values of reform indicators may lead to spurious results, (ii) this is more likely in estimations based on longer time windows, which include ‘post transition ’ years. Nevertheless, the existing empirical evidence is sufficient to demonstrate: (iii) a positive link between the reforms and economic growth, and (iv) a lag between the reforms implementation and the positive response in economic growth.
