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The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4703
, 2008
"... The paper presents a major overhaul to the World Bank’s past estimates of global poverty, incorporating new and better data. Extreme poverty—as judged by what “poverty ” means in the world’s poorest countries—is found to be more pervasive than we thought. Yet the data also provide robust evidence of ..."
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Cited by 123 (7 self)
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The paper presents a major overhaul to the World Bank’s past estimates of global poverty, incorporating new and better data. Extreme poverty—as judged by what “poverty ” means in the world’s poorest countries—is found to be more pervasive than we thought. Yet the data also provide robust evidence of continually declining poverty incidence and depth since the early 1980s. For 2005 we estimate that 1.4 billion people, or one quarter of the population of the developing world, lived below our international line of $1.25 a day in 2005 prices; 25 years earlier there were 1.9 billion poor, or one half of the population. Progress was uneven across regions. The poverty rate in East Asia fell from almost 80 percent to under 20 percent over this period. By contrast it stayed at around 50 percent in SubSaharan Africa, though with signs of progress since the mid 1990s. Because of lags in survey data availability, these estimates do not yet reflect the sharp rise in food prices since 2005. This paper—a product of the Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to monitor the
On parameter estimations of threshold autoregressive models. Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes
, 2012
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Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income percapita: A Predictive Density Approach.
 International Economic Review
, 1999
"... The paper proposes a technique to jointly tests for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parametersofeach group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income percapita.The approach uses the predictive densityofthedata, conditional o ..."
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Cited by 84 (2 self)
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The paper proposes a technique to jointly tests for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parametersofeach group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income percapita.The approach uses the predictive densityofthedata, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clustersaround four polesofattraction with differenteconomic features. The distribution of income percapita of OECD countries has twopolesofattraction and each group has clearly identifiable economic characteristics. JEL Classification No.: C11, D90, O47 Key words: Heterogeneities, Panel Data, Predictive Density, Income Inequality. 3 Iwouldlike to thank three anonymous referees, the editor of this journal, Bruce Hansen, Hashem Pesaran, Russell Cooper, Christopher Croux, Albert Marcet and the participants atseminars at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the University of Southampton, Universite de Paris IM...
Quantile Autoregression
 Convergence of Stochastic Processes
, 2006
"... Abstract. We consider quantile autoregression (QAR) models in which the autoregressive coefficients can be expressed as monotone functions of a single, scalar random variable. The models can capture systematic influences of conditioning variables on the location, scale and shape of the conditional d ..."
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Cited by 49 (5 self)
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Abstract. We consider quantile autoregression (QAR) models in which the autoregressive coefficients can be expressed as monotone functions of a single, scalar random variable. The models can capture systematic influences of conditioning variables on the location, scale and shape of the conditional distribution of the response, and therefore constitute a significant extension of classical constant coefficient linear time series models in which the effect of conditioning is confined to a location shift. The models may be interpreted as a special case of the general random coefficient autoregression model with strongly dependent coefficients. Statistical properties of the proposed model and associated estimators are studied. The limiting distributions of the autoregression quantile process are derived. Quantile autoregression inference methods are also investigated. Empirical applications of the model to the U.S. unemployment rate and U.S. gasoline prices highlight the potential of the model. 1.
2004), “The Solow Model with CES Technology: Nonlinearities and Parameter Heterogeneity
 Journal of Applied Econometrics
"... This paper examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow (1956) growth regressions. Nonlinearities in the production technology are introduced by replacing the commonly used CobbDouglas (CD) aggregated production specification ..."
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Cited by 38 (8 self)
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This paper examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow (1956) growth regressions. Nonlinearities in the production technology are introduced by replacing the commonly used CobbDouglas (CD) aggregated production specification with the more general ConstantElasticityofSubstitution (CES) specification. We first justify our choice of production function by showing that crosscountry level regressions favor the CES over the CD technology. Then, by using the endogenous threshold methodology of Hansen (2000) we show that the Solow model with CES technology is consistent with the existence of multiple regimes. JEL Classification: O40, O47
Instrumental Variable Estimation of a Threshold Model,” Econometric Theory
, 2004
"... Threshold models ~sample splitting models! have wide application in economics+ Existing estimation methods are confined to regression models, which require that all righthandside variables are exogenous+ This paper considers a model with endogenous variables but an exogenous threshold variable+ We ..."
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Cited by 32 (1 self)
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Threshold models ~sample splitting models! have wide application in economics+ Existing estimation methods are confined to regression models, which require that all righthandside variables are exogenous+ This paper considers a model with endogenous variables but an exogenous threshold variable+ We develop a twostage least squares estimator of the threshold parameter and a generalized method of moments estimator of the slope parameters+ We show that these estimators are consistent, and we derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimators+ The threshold estimate has the same distribution as for the regression case ~Hansen, 2000, Econometrica 68, 575–603!, with a different scale+ The slope parameter estimates are asymptotically normal with conventional covariance matrices+ We investigate our distribution theory with a Monte Carlo simulation that indicates the applicability of the methods+ 1.
Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes
 Economics Letters, Elsevier
, 2002
"... Abstract. This paper employs the datasorting method developed by Hansen (2000) which allows the data to endogenously select regimes using di®erent variables. It is shown that openness, as measured by the trade share to GDP, is a threshold variable that can cluster middleincome countries into two d ..."
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Cited by 27 (2 self)
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Abstract. This paper employs the datasorting method developed by Hansen (2000) which allows the data to endogenously select regimes using di®erent variables. It is shown that openness, as measured by the trade share to GDP, is a threshold variable that can cluster middleincome countries into two distinct regimes that obey di®erent statistical models. Our result suggests that openness may not be as crucial in the growth process of low and highincome countries but it is instrumental in identifying middleincome countries into high and lowgrowth groups.
Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models
, 2003
"... This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It is wellknown that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend upon whether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, t ..."
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Cited by 26 (4 self)
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This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It is wellknown that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend upon whether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, the limiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. In the discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is nonnormal and cannot be estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by the use of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extended to situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In this case, also the inference for the regression parameters of the model becomes difficult and subsampling can be used again. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity of a SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance and an application illustrates how the proposed methodology works in practice.
Growth and convergence: A profile of distribution dynamics and mobility
 Journal of Econometrics
, 2007
"... dynamics and mobility ..."