During the past 20 years, the world’s major central banks have been largely successful at bringing inflation under control. Although it is premature to suggest that inflation is no longer an issue of great concern, it is quite conceivable that the next battles facing central bankers will lie on a different front. One development that has already concentrated the minds of policymakers is an apparent increase in financial instability, of which one important dimension is increased volatility of asset prices. Borio, Kennedy, and Prowse (1994), among others, document the emergence of major boom-bust cycles in the prices of equity and real estate in a number of industrialized countries during the 1980s. Notable examples include the United States,

This paper summarizes and explains the main events of the liquidity and credit crunch in 2007-08. Starting with the trends leading up to the crisis, I explain how these events unfolded and how four different amplification mechanisms magnified losses in the mortgage market into large dislocations and turmoil in financial markets.

the project Optimal Monetary Institutions for Mexico. I wish to acknowledge very helpful

policy options

Can neoclassical theory account for the Great Depression in the United States--- both the downturn in output between 1929 and 1933 and the recovery between 1934 and 1939? Yes and no. Given the large real and monetary shocks to the U.S. economy during 1929--33, neoclassical theory does predict a long, deep downturn. However, theory predicts a much different recovery from this downturn than actually occurred. Given the period's sharp increases in total factor productivity and the money supply and the elimination of deflation and bank failures, theory predicts an extremely rapid recovery that returns output to trend around 1936. In sharp contrast, real output remained between 25 and 30 percent below trend through the late 1930s. We conclude that a new shock is needed to account for the Depression's weak recovery. A likely culprit is New Deal policies toward monopoly and the distribution of income. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of...

Abstract not found

In the last twenty years, countries throughout the world have experienced severe bouts of financial instability. Banking crises have become so common that it is the rare country that has not experienced one, while full-scale financial crises have struck some economies with devastating effects. Financial instability, although a particularly severe problem for emerging-market countries which suffer disproportionately when it occurs, has struck industrialized countries just as frequently. Given our recent record of increased financial instability, it is no surprise that policymakers throughout the world, and especially central bankers, have become more concerned about what leads to financial instability and what can be done to prevent it. This paper examines what causes and propagates financial instability and then suggests some lessons for policymakers. A key theme of the analysis is that the root cause of financial instability is the breakdown

This essay surveys the body of research that asks how the efficiency of corporate investment is influenced by problems of asymmetric information and agency. I organize the material around two basic questions. First, does the external capital market channel the right amount of money to each firm? That is, does the market get across-firm allocations right, so that the marginal return to investment in firm i is the same as the marginal return to investment in firm j? Second, do internal capital markets channel the right amount of money to individual projects within firms? That is, does the internal capital budgeting process get withinfirm allocations right, so that the marginal return to investment in firm i’s division A is the same as the marginal return to investment in firm i’s division B? In addition to discussing the theoretical and empirical work that bears most directly on these questions, the essay also briefly sketches some of the implications of this work for broader issues in both macroeconomics and the theory of the firm.

This paper studies the full equilibrium dynamics of an economy with financial frictions. Due to highly non-linear amplification effects, the economy is prone to instability and occasionally enters volatile episodes. Risk is endogenous and asset price correlations are high in down turns. In an environment of low exogenous risk experts assume higher leverage making the system more prone to systemic volatility spikes- a volatility paradox. Securitization and derivatives contracts leads to better sharing of exogenous risk but to higher endogenous systemic risk. Financial experts may impose a negative externality on each other by not maintaining adequate capital cushion.

Bank, where part of this article was written. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not