This paper addresses the design of mobile sensor networks for optimal data collection. The development is strongly motivated by the application to adaptive ocean sampling for an autonomous ocean observing and prediction system. A performance metric, used to derive optimal paths for the network of mobile sensors, defines the optimal data set as one which minimizes error in a model estimate of the sampled field. Feedback control laws are presented that stably coordinate sensors on structured tracks that have been optimized over a minimal set of parameters. Optimal, closed-loop solutions are computed in a number of low-dimensional cases to illustrate the methodology. Robustness of the performance to the influence of a steady flow field on relatively slow-moving mobile sensors is also explored.

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system’s time evolution. Rather than solving the problem from scratch each time new observations become available, one uses the model to “forecast ” the current state, using a prior state estimate (which incorporates information from past data) as the initial condition, then uses current data to correct the prior forecast to a current state estimate. This Bayesian approach is most effective when the uncertainty in both the observations and in the state estimate, as it evolves over time, are accurately quantified. In this article, I describe a practical method for data assimilation in large, spatiotemporally chaotic systems. The method is a type of “Ensemble Kalman Filter”, in which the state estimate and its approximate uncertainty are represented at any given time by an ensemble of system states. I discuss both the mathematical basis of this approach and its implementation; my primary emphasis is on ease of use and computational speed rather than improving accuracy over previously published approaches to ensemble Kalman filtering. 1

A Doppler radar data assimilation system is developed based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method and tested with simulated radar data from a supercell storm. As a first implementation, we assume the forward models are perfect and radar data are sampled at the analysis grid points. A general purpose nonhydrostatic compressible model is used with the inclusion of complex multi-class ice microphysics. New aspects compared to previous studies include the demonstration of the ability of EnKF method in retrieving multiple microphysical species associated with a multi-class ice microphysics scheme, and in accurately retrieving the wind and thermodynamic variables. Also new are the inclusion of reflectivity observations and the determination of the relative role of radial velocity and reflectivity data as well as their spatial coverage in recovering the full flow and cloud fields. In general, the system is able to reestablish the model storm extremely well after a number of assimilation cycles, and best results are obtained when both radial velocity and reflectivity data, including reflectivity information outside precipitation regions, are used. Significant positive impact of the reflectivity assimilation

This paper describes the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis of ocean climate variability. In the assimilation, a model forecast produced by an ocean general circulation model with an average resolution of 0.25 ° 0.4 ° 40 levels is continuously corrected by contemporaneous observations with corrections estimated every 10 days. The basic reanalysis, SODA 1.4.2, spans the 44-yr period from 1958 to 2001, which complements the span of the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-40). The observation set for this experiment includes the historical archive of hydrographic profiles supplemented by ship intake measurements, moored hydrographic obser-vations, and remotely sensed SST. A parallel run, SODA 1.4.0, is forced with identical surface boundary conditions, but without data assimilation. The new reanalysis represents a significant improvement over a previously published version of the SODA algorithm. In particular, eddy kinetic energy and sea level variability are much larger than in previous versions and are more similar to estimates from independent observations. One issue addressed in this paper is the relative importance of the model forecast versus the observations for the analysis. The results show that at near-annual frequencies the forecast model has a strong influence, whereas at decadal frequencies the observations become increasingly dominant in the analysis. As a consequence, interannual variability in SODA 1.4.2 closely resembles interannual variability in SODA 1.4.0. However, decadal anomalies of the 0–700-m heat content from SODA 1.4.2 more closely resemble heat content anomalies based on observations. 1.

Abstract—Operations with multiple autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have a variety of underwater applications. For example, a coordinated group of vehicles with environmental sensors can perform adaptive ocean sampling at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. We describe a methodology for cooperative control of multiple vehicles based on virtual bodies and artificial potentials (VBAP). This methodology allows for adaptable formation control and can be used for missions such as gradient climbing and feature tracking in an uncertain environment. We discuss our implementation on a fleet of autonomous underwater gliders and present results from sea trials in Monterey Bay in August, 2003. These at-sea demonstrations were performed as part of the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN) II project. Index Terms—Adaptive sampling, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), cooperative control, formations, gradient climbing, underwater gliders. I.

Modifications to the Atlantic and east Pacific versions of the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for each year from 1997 to 2003 are described. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from 3 to 5 days in 2001, and the use of an operational global model for the evaluation of the atmospheric predictors instead of a simple dry-adiabatic model beginning in 2001. A verification of the SHIPS operational intensity forecasts is presented. Results show that the 1997–2003 SHIPS forecasts had statistically significant skill (relative to climatology and persistence) out to 72 h in the Atlantic, and at 48 and 72 h in the east Pacific. The inclusion of the land effects reduced the intensity errors by up to 15 % in the Atlantic, and up to 3 % in the east Pacific, primarily for the shorter-range forecasts. The inclusion of land effects did not significantly degrade the forecasts at any time period. Results also showed that the 4–5-day forecasts that began in 2001 did not have skill in the Atlantic, but had some skill in the east Pacific. An experimental version of SHIPS that included satellite observations was tested during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. New predictors included brightness temperature information from Geostationary Operational

Ensemble Kalman filtering was developed as a way to assimilate observed data to track the current state in a computational model. In this paper we show that the ensemble approach makes possible an additional benefit: the timing of observations,

Recent studies (Patil et al. 2001, 2002) have shown that, when the Earth’s surface is divided up into local regions of moderate size, vectors of the forecast uncertainties in such regions tend to lie in a subspace of much lower dimension than that of the full atmospheric state vector. In this paper we show how this finding can be exploited to formulate a potentially accurate and efficient data assimilation technique. The basic idea is that, since the expected forecast errors lie in a locally low dimensional subspace, the analysis resulting from the data assimilation should also lie in this subspace. This implies that operations only on relatively low dimensional matrices are required. The data assimilation analysis is done locally in a manner allowing massively parallel computation to be exploited. The local analyses are then used to construct global states for advancement to the next forecast time. Potential advantages of the method are discussed. 1

Some of the most complex models routinely run are numerical weather prediction models. These models are based on a discretisation of a coupled set of partial differential equations (the dynamics) which govern the time evolution of the atmosphere, described in terms of temperature, pressure, velocity,

A radar simulator for polarimetric radar variables, including reflectivities at horizontal and vertical polarizations, the differential reflectivity, and the specific differential phase, has been developed. This simulator serves as a test bed for developing and testing forward observation operators of polarimetric radar variables that are needed when directly assimilating these variables into storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, using either variational or ensemble-based assimilation methods. The simulator takes as input the results of high-resolution NWP model simulations with ice microphysics and produces simulated polarimetric radar data that may also contain simulated errors. It is developed based on calculations of electromagnetic wave propagation and scattering at the S band of wavelength 10.7 cm in a hydrometeor-containing atmosphere. The T-matrix method is used for the scattering calculation of raindrops and the Rayleigh scattering approximation is applied to snow and hail particles. The polarimetric variables are expressed as functions of the hydrometeor mixing ratios as well as their corresponding drop size distribution parameters and densities. The presence of wet snow and wet hail in the melting layer is accounted for by using a new, relatively simple melting model that defines the water fraction in the melting snow or hail. The effect of varying density due to the melting snow or hail is also included. Vertical cross sections and profiles of the polarimetric variables for a simulated mature multicellular squall-line system and a supercell storm show that polarimetric signatures of the bright band in the stratiform region and those associated with deep convection are well captured by the simulator.