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A numerical testbed for hypotheses of extraterrestrial life and intelligence (2009)

by D H Forgan
Venue:Int. J. Astrobiology
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The Fermi Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the Interstellar Transportation Bandwidth

by Keith B. Wiley
"... It has been widely acknowledged that self-replicating space-probes (SRPs) could explore the galaxy very quickly relative to the age of the galaxy. An obvious implication is that SRPs produced by extraterrestrial civilizations should have arrived in our solar system millions of years ago, and further ..."
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It has been widely acknowledged that self-replicating space-probes (SRPs) could explore the galaxy very quickly relative to the age of the galaxy. An obvious implication is that SRPs produced by extraterrestrial civilizations should have arrived in our solar system millions of years ago, and furthermore, that new probes from an ever-arising supply of civilizations ought to be arriving on a constant basis. The lack of observations of such probes underlies a frequently cited variation of the Fermi Paradox. We believe that a predilection for ETI-optimistic theories has deterred consideration of incompatible theories. Notably, SRPs have virtually disappeared from the literature. In this paper, we consider the most common arguments against SRPs and find those arguments lacking. By extension, we find recent models of galactic exploration which explicitly exclude SRPs to be unfairly handicapped and unlikely to represent natural scenarios. We also consider several other models that seek to explain the Fermi Paradox, most notably percolation theory and two societalcollapse theories. In the former case, we find that it imposes unnatural assumptions which likely render it unrealistic. In the latter case, we present a new theory of interstellar transportation bandwidth which calls into question the validity of societal-collapse theories. Finally, we offer our thoughts on how to design future SETI programs which take the conclusions of this paper into account to maximize the chance of detection.
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...erature; most models either derive the current ETI population, e.g., (Cotta and Morales, 2009) and any application of the Drake equation, or disregard the effects of interstellar colonization, e.g., (=-=Forgan, 2009-=-; Bjoerk, 2007; Cotta and Morales, 2009). A broad overview of the literature suggests a consensus for the total number of civilizations (species) to be 3×102 –1010, but common estimates practically ne...

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by M. G. Gowanlock, D. R. Patton, S. M. Mcconnell, Michael Gowanlock
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...ld as we learn more about our Galaxy and habitable planets. Studies relating to the distribution of habitable planets, extraterrestrial life and colonization of the Galaxy (see Bounamam et al., 2007; =-=Forgan, 2009-=-) currently rely on the canonical model by Lineweaver et al. (2004). Our revised conception of the GHZ has implications for these and other related studies. 5 Conclusions We present a model of habitab...

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by Duncan H. Forgan, D. H. Forgan , 2014
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...or the full 4.5 Gyr) is likely to be incorrect, as we expect civilisations to emerge and disappear at different times, with these timescales correlated with star formation and planet formation epochs =-=[22, 7, 10]-=-. Adding a temporal constraint to communications can significantly reduce the ability of civilisation pairs to communicate directly, much less intercept communications [9]. We have also assumed that e...

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