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279
Data Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Technique
, 1998
"... The possibility of performing data assimilation using the flowdependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of shortrange forecasts (a technique referred to as ensemble Kalman filtering) is examined in an idealized environment. Using a threelevel, quasigeostrophic, T21 model and simulated ob ..."
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Cited by 411 (5 self)
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The possibility of performing data assimilation using the flowdependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of shortrange forecasts (a technique referred to as ensemble Kalman filtering) is examined in an idealized environment. Using a threelevel, quasigeostrophic, T21 model and simulated observations, experiments are performed in a perfectmodel context. By using forward interpolation operators from the model state to the observations, the ensemble Kalman filter is able to utilize nonconventional observations. In order to
An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis for Climate
 J Clim 15:1609–1625. doi
, 2002
"... A weekly 18 spatial resolution optimum interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has been produced at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using both in situ and satellite data from November 1981 to the present. The weekly product has been available since 1993 a ..."
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Cited by 374 (11 self)
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A weekly 18 spatial resolution optimum interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has been produced at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using both in situ and satellite data from November 1981 to the present. The weekly product has been available since 1993 and is widely used for weather and climate monitoring and forecasting. Errors in the satellite bias correction and the sea ice to SST conversion algorithm are discussed, and then an improved version of the OI analysis is developed. The changes result in a modest reduction in the satellite bias that leaves small global residual biases of roughly 20.038C. The major improvement in the analysis occurs at high latitudes due to the new sea ice algorithm where local differences between the old and new analysis can exceed 18C. Comparisons with other SST products are needed to determine the consistency of the OI. These comparisons show that the differences among products occur on large time and space scales with monthly rms differences exceeding 0.58C in some regions. These regions are primarily the mid and highlatitude Southern Oceans and the Arctic where data are sparse, as well as highgradient areas such as the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio where the gradients cannot be properly resolved on a 18 grid. In addition, globally averaged differences of roughly 0.058C occur among the products on decadal scales. These differences primarily arise from the same regions where the rms differences are large. However, smaller unexplained differences also occur in other regions of the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere where in situ data should be adequate. 1.
Adaptive Sampling With the Ensemble Transform . . .
, 2001
"... A suboptimal Kalman filter called the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ET KF) is introduced. Like other Kalman filters, it provides a framework for assimilating observations and also for estimating the effect of observations on forecast error covariance. It differs from other ensemble Kalman filt ..."
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Cited by 321 (19 self)
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A suboptimal Kalman filter called the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ET KF) is introduced. Like other Kalman filters, it provides a framework for assimilating observations and also for estimating the effect of observations on forecast error covariance. It differs from other ensemble Kalman filters in that it uses ensemble transformation and a normalization to rapidly obtain the prediction error covariance matrix associated with a particular deployment of observational resources. This rapidity enables it to quickly assess the ability of a large number of future feasible sequences of observational networks to reduce forecast error variance. The ET KF was used by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the Winter Storm Reconnaissance missions of 1999 and 2000 to determine where aircraft should deploy dropwindsondes in order to improve 2472h forecasts over the continental United States. The ET KF may be applied to any wellconstructed set of ensemble perturbations. The ET KF
A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2
 AVAILABLE FROM NCAR; P.O. BOX 3000; BOULDER, CO
, 2001
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Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
 Mon. Wea. Rev
, 1997
"... The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that time a single breeding cycle with a pair of bred forecasts was implemented. In ..."
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Cited by 193 (16 self)
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The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that time a single breeding cycle with a pair of bred forecasts was implemented. In March 1994, the ensemble was expanded to seven independent breeding cycles on the Cray C90 supercomputer, and the forecasts were extended to 16 days. This provides 17 independent global forecasts valid for two weeks every day. For efficient ensemble forecasting, the initial perturbations to the control analysis should adequately sample the space of possible analysis errors. It is shown that the analysis cycle is like a breeding cycle: it acts as a nonlinear perturbation model upon the evolution of the real atmosphere. The perturbation (i.e., the analysis error), carried forward in the firstguess forecasts, is ‘‘scaled down’ ’ at regular intervals by the use of observations. Because of this, growing errors associated with the evolving state of the atmosphere develop within the analysis cycle and dominate subsequent forecast error growth. The breeding method simulates the development of growing errors in the analysis cycle. A difference field between two nonlinear forecasts is carried forward (and scaled down at regular intervals) upon the evolving atmospheric analysis fields. By construction, the bred vectors are superpositions of the leading local (timedependent)
DistanceDependent Filtering of Background Error Covariance Estimates in an Ensemble Kalman Filter
, 2001
"... The usefulness of a distancedependent reduction of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter is demonstrated. Covariances are reduced by performing an elementwise multiplication of the background error covariance matrix with a correlation function with local support. This ..."
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Cited by 189 (31 self)
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The usefulness of a distancedependent reduction of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter is demonstrated. Covariances are reduced by performing an elementwise multiplication of the background error covariance matrix with a correlation function with local support. This reduces noisiness and results in an improved background error covariance estimate, which generates a reducederror ensemble of model initial conditions. The benefits
An Introduction to Estimation Theory
 OFFICE NOTE SERIES ON GLOBAL MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION
, 1997
"... Despite the explosive growth of activity in the field of Earth System data assimilation over the past decade or so, there remains a substantial gap between theory and practice. The present article attempts to bridge this gap by exposing some of the central concepts of estimation theory and connectin ..."
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Cited by 166 (7 self)
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Despite the explosive growth of activity in the field of Earth System data assimilation over the past decade or so, there remains a substantial gap between theory and practice. The present article attempts to bridge this gap by exposing some of the central concepts of estimation theory and connecting them with current and future data assimilation approaches. Estimation theory provides a broad and natural mathematical foundation for data assimilation science. Stochasticdynamic modeling and stochastic observation modeling are described first. Optimality criteria for linear and nonlinear state estimation problems are then explored, leading to conditionalmean estimation procedures such as the Kalman filter and some of its generalizations, and to conditionalmode estimation procedures such as variational methods. A detailed derivation of the Kalman filter is given to illustrate the role of key probabilistic concepts and assumptions. Extensions of the Kalman filter to nonlinear observat...
Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter
 Physica D
, 2007
"... Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system’s time evolution. Rather than solving the problem from scratch each time new observations become availab ..."
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Cited by 147 (11 self)
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Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system’s time evolution. Rather than solving the problem from scratch each time new observations become available, one uses the model to “forecast ” the current state, using a prior state estimate (which incorporates information from past data) as the initial condition, then uses current data to correct the prior forecast to a current state estimate. This Bayesian approach is most effective when the uncertainty in both the observations and in the state estimate, as it evolves over time, are accurately quantified. In this article, I describe a practical method for data assimilation in large, spatiotemporally chaotic systems. The method is a type of “Ensemble Kalman Filter”, in which the state estimate and its approximate uncertainty are represented at any given time by an ensemble of system states. I discuss both the mathematical basis of this approach and its implementation; my primary emphasis is on ease of use and computational speed rather than improving accuracy over previously published approaches to ensemble Kalman filtering. 1
Optimal Sites for Supplementary Weather Observations: Simulation with a Small Model
, 1998
"... Anticipating the opportunity to make supplementary observations at locations that can depend upon the current weather situation, the question is posed as to what strategy should be adopted to select the locations, if the greatest improvement in analyses and forecasts is to be realized. To seek a p ..."
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Cited by 140 (1 self)
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Anticipating the opportunity to make supplementary observations at locations that can depend upon the current weather situation, the question is posed as to what strategy should be adopted to select the locations, if the greatest improvement in analyses and forecasts is to be realized. To seek a preliminary answer, the authors introduce a model consisting of 40 ordinary differential equations, with the dependent variables representing values of some atmospheric quantity at 40 sites spaced equally about a latitude circle. The equations contain quadratic, linear, and constant terms representing advection, dissipation, and external forcing. Numerical integration indicates that small errors (differences between solutions) tend to double in about 2 days. Localized errors tend to spread eastward as they grow, encircling the globe after about 14 days. In the
A Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter / 3DVariational Analysis Scheme
"... A hybrid 3dimensional variational (3DVar) / ensemble Kalman filter analysis scheme is demonstrated using a quasigeostrophic model under perfectmodel assumptions. Four networks with differing observational densities are tested, including one network with a data void. The hybrid scheme operates by ..."
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Cited by 123 (18 self)
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A hybrid 3dimensional variational (3DVar) / ensemble Kalman filter analysis scheme is demonstrated using a quasigeostrophic model under perfectmodel assumptions. Four networks with differing observational densities are tested, including one network with a data void. The hybrid scheme operates by computing a set of parallel data assimilation cycles, with each member of the set receiving unique perturbed observations. The perturbed observations are generated by adding random noise consistent with observation error statistics to the control set of observations. Background error statistics for the data assimilation are estimated from a linear combination of timeinvariant 3DVar covariances and flowdependent covariances developed from the ensemble of shortrange forecasts. The hybrid scheme allows the user to weight the relative contributions of the 3DVar and ensemblebased background covariances. The analysis scheme was cycled for 90 days, with new observations assimilated every 12 h...