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A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/nonGaussian Bayesian tracking
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SIGNAL PROCESSING
, 2002
"... Increasingly, for many application areas, it is becoming important to include elements of nonlinearity and nonGaussianity in order to model accurately the underlying dynamics of a physical system. Moreover, it is typically crucial to process data online as it arrives, both from the point of view o ..."
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Cited by 2006 (2 self)
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Increasingly, for many application areas, it is becoming important to include elements of nonlinearity and nonGaussianity in order to model accurately the underlying dynamics of a physical system. Moreover, it is typically crucial to process data online as it arrives, both from the point of view of storage costs as well as for rapid adaptation to changing signal characteristics. In this paper, we review both optimal and suboptimal Bayesian algorithms for nonlinear/nonGaussian tracking problems, with a focus on particle filters. Particle filters are sequential Monte Carlo methods based on point mass (or “particle”) representations of probability densities, which can be applied to any statespace model and which generalize the traditional Kalman filtering methods. Several variants of the particle filter such as SIR, ASIR, and RPF are introduced within a generic framework of the sequential importance sampling (SIS) algorithm. These are discussed and compared with the standard EKF through an illustrative example.
CONDENSATION  conditional density propagation for visual tracking
, 1998
"... The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimodal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to th ..."
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Cited by 1503 (12 self)
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The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimodal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set. Condensation uses learned dynamical models, together with visual observations, to propagate the random set over time. The result is highly robust tracking of agile motion. Notwithstanding the use of stochastic methods, the algorithm runs in near realtime.
On Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling Methods for Bayesian Filtering
 STATISTICS AND COMPUTING
, 2000
"... In this article, we present an overview of methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions. These methods are of particular interest in Bayesian filtering for discrete time dynamic models that are typically nonlinear and nonGaussian. A general importance sampling framework is develop ..."
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Cited by 1051 (76 self)
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In this article, we present an overview of methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions. These methods are of particular interest in Bayesian filtering for discrete time dynamic models that are typically nonlinear and nonGaussian. A general importance sampling framework is developed that unifies many of the methods which have been proposed over the last few decades in several different scientific disciplines. Novel extensions to the existing methods are also proposed. We show in particular how to incorporate local linearisation methods similar to those which have previously been employed in the deterministic filtering literature; these lead to very effective importance distributions. Furthermore we describe a method which uses RaoBlackwellisation in order to take advantage of the analytic structure present in some important classes of statespace models. In a final section we develop algorithms for prediction, smoothing and evaluation of the likelihood in dynamic models.
KernelBased Object Tracking
, 2003
"... A new approach toward target representation and localization, the central component in visual tracking of nonrigid objects, is proposed. The feature histogram based target representations are regularized by spatial masking with an isotropic kernel. The masking induces spatiallysmooth similarity fu ..."
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Cited by 900 (4 self)
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A new approach toward target representation and localization, the central component in visual tracking of nonrigid objects, is proposed. The feature histogram based target representations are regularized by spatial masking with an isotropic kernel. The masking induces spatiallysmooth similarity functions suitable for gradientbased optimization, hence, the target localization problem can be formulated using the basin of attraction of the local maxima. We employ a metric derived from the Bhattacharyya coefficient as similarity measure, and use the mean shift procedure to perform the optimization. In the presented tracking examples the new method successfully coped with camera motion, partial occlusions, clutter, and target scale variations. Integration with motion filters and data association techniques is also discussed. We describe only few of the potential applications: exploitation of background information, Kalman tracking using motion models, and face tracking. Keywords: nonrigid object tracking; target localization and representation; spatiallysmooth similarity function; Bhattacharyya coefficient; face tracking. 1
Robust Monte Carlo Localization for Mobile Robots
, 2001
"... Mobile robot localization is the problem of determining a robot's pose from sensor data. This article presents a family of probabilistic localization algorithms known as Monte Carlo Localization (MCL). MCL algorithms represent a robot's belief by a set of weighted hypotheses (samples), whi ..."
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Cited by 839 (85 self)
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Mobile robot localization is the problem of determining a robot's pose from sensor data. This article presents a family of probabilistic localization algorithms known as Monte Carlo Localization (MCL). MCL algorithms represent a robot's belief by a set of weighted hypotheses (samples), which approximate the posterior under a common Bayesian formulation of the localization problem. Building on the basic MCL algorithm, this article develops a more robust algorithm called MixtureMCL, which integrates two complimentary ways of generating samples in the estimation. To apply this algorithm to mobile robots equipped with range finders, a kernel density tree is learned that permits fast sampling. Systematic empirical results illustrate the robustness and computational efficiency of the approach.
A New Extension of the Kalman Filter to Nonlinear Systems
, 1997
"... The Kalman filter(KF) is one of the most widely used methods for tracking and estimation due to its simplicity, optimality, tractability and robustness. However, the application of the KF to nonlinear systems can be difficult. The most common approach is to use the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which ..."
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Cited by 778 (6 self)
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The Kalman filter(KF) is one of the most widely used methods for tracking and estimation due to its simplicity, optimality, tractability and robustness. However, the application of the KF to nonlinear systems can be difficult. The most common approach is to use the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simply linearises all nonlinear models so that the traditional linear Kalman filter can be applied. Although the EKF (in its many forms) is a widely used filtering strategy, over thirty years of experience with it has led to a general consensus within the tracking and control community that it is difficult to implement, difficult to tune, and only reliable for systems which are almost linear on the time scale of the update intervals. In this paper a new linear estimator is developed and demonstrated. Using the principle that a set of discretely sampled points can be used to parameterise mean and covariance, the estimator yields performance equivalent to the KF for linear systems yet general...
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 770 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Dynamic Systems
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1998
"... A general framework for using Monte Carlo methods in dynamic systems is provided and its wide applications indicated. Under this framework, several currently available techniques are studied and generalized to accommodate more complex features. All of these methods are partial combinations of three ..."
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Cited by 664 (13 self)
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A general framework for using Monte Carlo methods in dynamic systems is provided and its wide applications indicated. Under this framework, several currently available techniques are studied and generalized to accommodate more complex features. All of these methods are partial combinations of three ingredients: importance sampling and resampling, rejection sampling, and Markov chain iterations. We deliver a guideline on how they should be used and under what circumstance each method is most suitable. Through the analysis of differences and connections, we consolidate these methods into a generic algorithm by combining desirable features. In addition, we propose a general use of RaoBlackwellization to improve performances. Examples from econometrics and engineering are presented to demonstrate the importance of RaoBlackwellization and to compare different Monte Carlo procedures. Keywords: Blind deconvolution; Bootstrap filter; Gibbs sampling; Hidden Markov model; Kalman filter; Markov...
Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models
 Review of Economic Studies
, 1998
"... In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihoodbased framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offse ..."
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Cited by 592 (40 self)
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In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihoodbased framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulationbased methods for filtering, likelihood evaluation and model failure diagnostics. The issue of model choice using nonnested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and GARCH models. All the procedures are illustrated in detail. 1.