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Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with . . .
, 2010
"... This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. To accomplish this we develop a novel arbitragefree DT SM in which macroeconomic risks – in particular, real output and ..."
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Cited by 66 (10 self)
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This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. To accomplish this we develop a novel arbitragefree DT SM in which macroeconomic risks – in particular, real output and inflation risks – impact bond investment decisions separately from information about the shape of the yield curve. Estimates of our preferred macroDT SM over the twentythree year period from 1985 through 2007 reveal that unspanned macro risks explained a substantial proportion of the variation in forward terms premiums. Unspanned macro risks accounted for nearly 90 % of the conditional variation in shortdated forward term premiums, with unspanned real economic growth being the key driving factor. Over horizons beyond three years, these effects were entirely attributable to unspanned inflation. Using our model, we also reassess some of Chairman Bernanke’s remarks on the interplay between term premiums, the shape of the yield curve, and macroeconomic activity.
Macro factors in bond risk premia
 Review of Financial Studies
, 2009
"... Are there important cyclical fluctuations in bond market premiums and, if so, with what macroeconomic aggregates do these premiums vary? We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond retur ..."
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Cited by 61 (1 self)
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Are there important cyclical fluctuations in bond market premiums and, if so, with what macroeconomic aggregates do these premiums vary? We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond returns and macroeconomic fundamentals. We find that “real ” and “inflation ” factors have important forecasting power for future excess returns on U.S. government bonds, above and beyond the predictive power contained in forward rates and yield spreads. This behavior is ruled out by commonly employed affine term structure models where the forecastability of bond returns and bond yields is completely summarized by the crosssection of yields or forward rates. An important implication of these findings is that the cyclical behavior of estimated risk premia in both returns and longterm yields depends importantly on whether the information in macroeconomic factors is included in forecasts of excess bond returns. Without the macro factors, risk premia appear virtually acyclical, whereas with the estimated factors risk premia have a marked countercyclical component, consistent with theories that imply investors must be compensated for risks associated with macroeconomic activity. ( JEL E0, E4, G10, G12) 1.
Why Gaussian MacroFinance Term Structure Models are (Nearly) Unconstrained FactorVARs.” Discussion paper,
, 2011
"... ABSTRACT This article develops a new family of Gaussian macrodynamic term structure models (MTSMs) in which bond yields follow a lowdimensional factor structure and the historical distribution of bond yields and macroeconomic variables is characterized by a vectorautoregression with order p > 1 ..."
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Cited by 21 (7 self)
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ABSTRACT This article develops a new family of Gaussian macrodynamic term structure models (MTSMs) in which bond yields follow a lowdimensional factor structure and the historical distribution of bond yields and macroeconomic variables is characterized by a vectorautoregression with order p > 1. Most formulations of MTSMs with p > 1 are shown to imply a much higher dimensional factor structure for yields than what is called for by historical data. In contrast, our "asymmetric" arbitragefree MTSM gives modelers the flexibility to match historical lag distributions with p > 1 while maintaining a parsimonious factor representation of yields. Using our canonical family of MTSMs we revisit: (i) the impact of noarbitrage restrictions on the joint distribution of bond yields and macro risks, comparing models with and without the restriction that macro risks are spanned by yieldcurve information; and (ii) the identification of the policy parameters in Taylorstyle monetary policy rules within MTSMs with macro risk factors and lags. ( JEL: G12,E43, C58, E58) KEYWORDS: Macrofinance term structure model, Lags, Taylor Rule Identification Dynamic term structure models in which a subset of the pricing factors are macroeconomic variables (MTSMs) often have bond yields depending on lags of these factors. 1 As typically parameterized, such MTSMs imply that the crosssection
CoVar”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no 348.
, 2007
"... Abstract We reconsider the role of financial intermediaries in monetary economics. We explore the hypothesis that financial intermediaries drive the business cycle by way of their role in determining the price of risk. In this framework, balance sheet quantities emerge as a key indicator of risk ap ..."
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Cited by 13 (1 self)
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Abstract We reconsider the role of financial intermediaries in monetary economics. We explore the hypothesis that financial intermediaries drive the business cycle by way of their role in determining the price of risk. In this framework, balance sheet quantities emerge as a key indicator of risk appetite and hence of the "risktaking channel" of monetary policy. We document evidence that the balance sheets of financial intermediaries reflect the transmission of monetary policy through capital market conditions. Our findings suggest that the traditional focus on the money stock for the conduct of monetary policy may have more modern counterparts, and we suggest the importance of tracking balance sheet quantities for the conduct of monetary policy.
Affine models
 In R. Cont (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance
, 2009
"... Abstract. Affine term structure models have gained a lot of attention in the finance literature, which is due to their analytic tractability and statistical flexibility. The aim of this article is to present both, theoretical foundations and empirical aspects. Starting from the first short rate mode ..."
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Cited by 7 (1 self)
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Abstract. Affine term structure models have gained a lot of attention in the finance literature, which is due to their analytic tractability and statistical flexibility. The aim of this article is to present both, theoretical foundations and empirical aspects. Starting from the first short rate models, namely the Vasiček and the CoxIngersollRoss ones, we then give an overview of some properties of affine processes and explain their relation to affine term structure models. Pricing and estimation techniques are eventually mentioned, showing how the analytic tractability of affine models can be exploited for practical purposes.
The Structure of Risks in Equilibrium Affine Models of Bond Yields ∗
, 2013
"... Many equilibrium term structure models (ETSMs) in which the state of the economy follows an affine process imply that the variation in expected excess returns on bond portfolio positions is fully spanned by the conditional variances of the state variables. We show that these two assumptions alone – ..."
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Cited by 6 (4 self)
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Many equilibrium term structure models (ETSMs) in which the state of the economy follows an affine process imply that the variation in expected excess returns on bond portfolio positions is fully spanned by the conditional variances of the state variables. We show that these two assumptions alone – an affine state process with conditional variances that span expected excess returns – are sufficient to econometrically identify the factors determining risk premiums in these ETSMs from data on the term structure of bond yields. Using this result we derive maximum likelihood estimates of the conditional variances of the state – the “quantities of risk” – and evaluate the goodnessoffit of a large family of affine ETSMs. These assessments of fit are fully robust to the values of the parameters governing preferences and the evolution of the state, and to whether or not the economy is arbitrage free. Our findings suggest that, to be consistent with U.S. macroeconomic and Treasury yield data, affine ETSMs should have the features that: (i) inflation risk, and not longrun risks or variation in risk premiums arising from habitbased preferences, is a significant (and perhaps the dominant) risk underlying risk premiums in U.S. Treasury markets; and (ii) risks that are unspanned by bond yields have substantial explanatory power for risk premiums consistent with timevarying market prices of risks.
Core and “crust”: Consumer prices and the term structure of interest rates. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
, 2012
"... We estimate a model for nominal and real term structures of interest rates that includes dynamics for the three main components of total inflation: core, food, and energy. These dynamics combine together to produce a measure of expected total inflation that investors use to price nominal Treasuries. ..."
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Cited by 3 (0 self)
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We estimate a model for nominal and real term structures of interest rates that includes dynamics for the three main components of total inflation: core, food, and energy. These dynamics combine together to produce a measure of expected total inflation that investors use to price nominal Treasuries. This framework captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations: shocks to core are more persistent and less volatile than shocks to food and, especially, energy (the ‘crust’). The model fits yields and inflation data well in sample, and produces inflation forecasts that outperform several benchmarks out of sample. A common structure of latent factors explains most of the variance of the forecasting error for core inflation and bond yields. This evidence suggests that interest rates contain useful predictive content for inflation. Moreover, we estimate real interest rates, as well as inflation and real rate risk premia, that are consistent with related marketbased measures. We are grateful to Larry Christiano, Charlie Evans, Spence Krane, Alejandro Justiniano, Michael McCracken,
Bond pricing and the macroeconomy
, 2012
"... This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve, the v ..."
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Cited by 3 (1 self)
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This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve, the variation of yields over time, and the predictability of excess bond returns. There are two overarching problems. First, much of the variation over time in economic activity is orthogonal to variation in nominal yields, and vice versa. Second, although mean excess returns to nominal Treasury bonds are positive, these returns do not appear to positively covary with risks that require compensation, at least according to standard assetpricing models.
Forecasting Interest Rates
 In Handbook of Economic Forecasting
, 2012
"... This chapter discusses what the assetpricing literature concludes about the forecastability of interest rates. It outlines forecasting methodologies implied by this literature, including dynamic, noarbitrage term structure models and their macrofinance extensions. It also reviews the empirical ev ..."
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Cited by 3 (0 self)
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This chapter discusses what the assetpricing literature concludes about the forecastability of interest rates. It outlines forecasting methodologies implied by this literature, including dynamic, noarbitrage term structure models and their macrofinance extensions. It also reviews the empirical evidence concerning the predictability of future yields on Treasury bonds and future excess returns to holding these bonds. In particular, it critically evaluates theory and evidence that variables other than current bond yields are useful in forecasting.
. Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzle ∗
, 2012
"... NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be clear ..."
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Cited by 2 (1 self)
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NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at ww.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be