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An Information Systems Security Risk Assessment Model under Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions
- Journal of Management Information Systems
, 2006
"... Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the audit firm for making their audit work papers available for the study. We sincerely appreciate the help provided by the audit manager and for suggestions provided by Mike Ettredge, Greg Freix, Prakash Shenoy, and participants in AIS workshops at the Unive ..."
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Cited by 31 (1 self)
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Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the audit firm for making their audit work papers available for the study. We sincerely appreciate the help provided by the audit manager and for suggestions provided by Mike Ettredge, Greg Freix, Prakash Shenoy, and participants in AIS workshops at the University of Kansas and the 6th Annual INFORMS Conference on Information Systems and Technology. In addition, the authors would like to thank Drs. Jay F.
Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction
, 2000
"... The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse stakeholders with different needs. Consequently, those outside marketing often do not realize the many reasons for developing forecasts, nor the marketing theory used and the challenges i ..."
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Cited by 13 (0 self)
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The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse stakeholders with different needs. Consequently, those outside marketing often do not realize the many reasons for developing forecasts, nor the marketing theory used and the challenges involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new communication services.
Formalizing Scenario Analysis
, 2002
"... We propose a formal treatment of scenarios in the context of a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning about uncertain propositions. Our formalism extends prior work in which arguments for and against uncertain propositions were presented and compared in interaction space ..."
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Cited by 3 (2 self)
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We propose a formal treatment of scenarios in the context of a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning about uncertain propositions. Our formalism extends prior work in which arguments for and against uncertain propositions were presented and compared in interaction spaces called Agoras. We now define the notion of a scenario in this framework and use it to define a set of qualitative uncertainty labels for propositions across a collection of scenarios.
Strawmen and Eidolons: Using Argumentation to Reason Across Scenarios
, 2001
"... We propose a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning under uncertainty in a context of alternative scenarios. Our formalism extends prior work representing knowledge uncertainty using dialectical argumentation in participant interaction spaces called Agoras. ..."
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Cited by 3 (3 self)
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We propose a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning under uncertainty in a context of alternative scenarios. Our formalism extends prior work representing knowledge uncertainty using dialectical argumentation in participant interaction spaces called Agoras.
2001c]: “Reasoning across scenarios in planning under uncertainty", pp. 85—92 in: C. Gomes and T. Walsh (Editors): Using Uncertainty within Computation
- Papers from the 2001 AAAI Fall Symposium. Technical Report FS-01-04. Menlo Park, CA, USA: American Association for Artificial Intelligence
"... Abstract Planning under uncertainty requires the adoption of assumptions about the current and future states of the world, and the preparation of conditional plans based on these assumptions. In any realistic domain, however, there will be an exponential explosion in the number of conditional plans ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Abstract Planning under uncertainty requires the adoption of assumptions about the current and future states of the world, and the preparation of conditional plans based on these assumptions. In any realistic domain, however, there will be an exponential explosion in the number of conditional plans required. One approach to this problem is to articulate a set of scenarios, which together are representative of the possible and/or likely futures. Doing this then creates the challenge of reasoning across the scenarios to decide a course of action. We present an argumentation-based formalism for representing different assumptions in a scenario framework and for reasoning across the resulting scenarios.
The Possibility of Arguability: Combining Multiple Arguments on the Same Topic
, 2001
"... Building on earlier work using dialectical argumentation to represent uncertainty, we consider how the results of different debates on the same topic may be combined coherently. The different debates may be considered as arising under different scenarios about the world. We define a class of uncerta ..."
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Building on earlier work using dialectical argumentation to represent uncertainty, we consider how the results of different debates on the same topic may be combined coherently. The different debates may be considered as arising under different scenarios about the world. We define a class of uncertainty measures to represent the extent to which a proposition is supported across these alternative scenarios, and we explore their formal properties. Our approach may be considered as expressing the possibility of arguability, analogous to the probability of provability.
Ensemble Theory: Arguing Across and Within Scenarios
"... Scenario planning provides a widely-used means of summarizing the multitude of possible ways in which the future may arrive. Given certain assumptions about the world as it is now in some domain, and assumptions about the factors which may influence it and their inter-relationships, we can articula ..."
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Scenario planning provides a widely-used means of summarizing the multitude of possible ways in which the future may arrive. Given certain assumptions about the world as it is now in some domain, and assumptions about the factors which may influence it and their inter-relationships, we can articulate an argument for how the present may evolve into the future. With different starting assumptions and different influencing factors, we may articulate alternative arguments for this possible evolution, each corresponding to one or more evolutionary paths.
and
"... Recent proposals for computer-assisted argumentation have drawn on dialectical models of argumentation. When used to assist public policy planning, such systems also raise questions of political legitimacy. Drawing on deliberative democratic theory, we elaborate normative criteria for deliberative l ..."
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Recent proposals for computer-assisted argumentation have drawn on dialectical models of argumentation. When used to assist public policy planning, such systems also raise questions of political legitimacy. Drawing on deliberative democratic theory, we elaborate normative criteria for deliberative legitimacy and illustrate their use for assessing two argumentation systems. Full assessment of such systems requires experiments in which system designers draw on expertise from the social sciences and enter into the policy deliberation itself at the level of participants. Keywords: Argumentation, Computer-Mediated Decisions, Decision Support Systems. 1.
Reasoning across scenarios . . .
- PAPERS FROM THE 2001 AAAI FALL SYMPOSIUM. TECHNICAL REPORT FS-01-04. MENLO PARK, CA, USA: AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
, 2001
"... Planning under uncertainty requires the adoption of assumptions about the current and future states of the world, and the preparation of conditional plans based on these assumptions. In any realistic domain, however, there will be an exponential explosion in the number of conditional plans requ ..."
Abstract
- Add to MetaCart
Planning under uncertainty requires the adoption of assumptions about the current and future states of the world, and the preparation of conditional plans based on these assumptions. In any realistic domain, however, there will be an exponential explosion in the number of conditional plans required. One approach to this problem is to articulate a set of scenarios, which together are representative of the possible and/or likely futures. Doing this then creates the challenge of reasoning across the scenarios to decide a course of action. We present an argumentation-based formalism for representing different assumptions in a scenario framework and for reasoning across the resulting scenarios.
