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17
How (In)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?”
- Journal of the American
, 2005
"... Abstract This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical signi ..."
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Cited by 76 (6 self)
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Abstract This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20 percent. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The article shows how planners may help achieve this.
The Demand Performance of Bus Rapid Transit
- Journal of Public Tansporta tion
, 2005
"... This article uses a trip attribute approach to examine the relative passenger attrac-tiveness of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems compared to other transit modes. It examines how passengers value trip attributes for on-street bus, BRT, and light rail and heavy rail systems in passenger behavior resea ..."
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Cited by 17 (1 self)
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This article uses a trip attribute approach to examine the relative passenger attrac-tiveness of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems compared to other transit modes. It examines how passengers value trip attributes for on-street bus, BRT, and light rail and heavy rail systems in passenger behavior research. Empirical data is presented which suggests that passengers value trip attributes for BRT and rail modes in a broadly similar manner. All of these transit modes are favored relative to on-street bus. These findings suggest that BRT systems should be as effective as rail in generat-ing patronage when developed to replace on-street bus services. This conclusion, in association with research demonstrating lower costs for BRT systems compared to rail, may be used to claim cost effectiveness advantages for BRT. However, a number of limitations in the evidence are identified and additional research suggested. Con-clusions of the research are also used to suggest ways to improve BRT system design to enhance demand performance.
ARTICLE Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
, 2007
"... ABSTRACT Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and d ..."
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Cited by 4 (1 self)
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ABSTRACT Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.
Approaching Metros as Potential Development Projects Table of Contents i TWU-28 Approaching Metros As Potential Development Projects
, 1997
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Assessing the impacts of light rail transit on urban land in Manila
- The Journal of Transport and Land Use
"... Abstract: �is paper presents an assessment of impacts of Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT1) in terms of accessibility and distance as they relate to variables such as land values, land uses, and population densities in Manila, Philippines. Using correlations and regressions, these variables are analyz ..."
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Abstract: �is paper presents an assessment of impacts of Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT1) in terms of accessibility and distance as they relate to variables such as land values, land uses, and population densities in Manila, Philippines. Using correlations and regressions, these variables are analyzed against an accessibility index and network distances obtained from a model built within a Geographic Information System (GIS). Land values, land uses, and population densities are in�uenced in a limited, though consistent, way by the accessibility provided by LRT1 and the distance to it. �e analysis of impacts a�er the construction of LRT1 found that accessibility and distance were only consistent in�uences for residential land values, with marginal results for the rest of the variables. �ese results, when contrasted with the urban con�guration of Manila and the studies reviewed, show that the limited impacts may be a consequence of good accessibility before LRT1 and the lack of complementary planning and policies for taking advantage of its in�uence.
APPROPRIATE MASS TRANSIT IN DEVELOPING CITIES
"... by Appropriate mass transit in developing cities ..."
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