Information diffusion and virus propagation are fundamental processes talking place in networks. While it is often possible to directly observe when nodes become infected, observing individual transmissions (i.e., who infects whom or who influences whom) is typically very difficult. Furthermore, in many applications, the underlying network over which the diffusions and propagations spread is actually unobserved. We tackle these challenges by developing a method for tracing paths of diffusion and influence through networks and inferring the networks over which contagions propagate. Given the times when nodes adopt pieces of information or become infected, we identify the optimal network that best explains the observed infection times. Since the optimization problem is NP-hard to solve exactly, we develop an efficient approximation algorithm that scales to large datasets and in practice gives provably near-optimal performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by tracing information cascades in a set of 170 million blogs and news articles over a one year period to infer how information flows through the online media space. We find that the diffusion network of news tends to have a core-periphery structure with a small set of core media sites that diffuse information to the rest of the Web. These sites tend to have stable circles of influence with more general news media sites acting as connectors between them.

The random walk is fundamental to modeling dynamic processes on networks. Metrics based on the random walk have been used in many applications from image processing to Web page ranking. However, how appropriate are random walks to modeling and analyzing social networks? We argue that unlike a random walk, which conserves the quantity diffusing on a network, many interesting social phenomena, such as the spread of information or disease on a social network, are fundamentally non-conservative. When an individual infects her neighbor with a virus, the total amount of infection increases. We classify diffusion processes as conservative and non-conservative and show how these differences impact the choice of metrics used for network analysis, as well as our understanding of network structure and behavior. We show that Alpha-Centrality, which mathematically describes non-conservative diffusion, leads to new insights into the behavior of spreading processes on networks. We give a scalable approximate algorithm for computing the Alpha-Centrality in a massive graph. We validate our approach on real-world online social networks of Digg. We show that a non-conservative metric, such as Alpha-Centrality, produces better agreement with empirical measure of influence than conservative metrics, such as PageRank. We hope that our investigation will inspire further exploration into the realms of conservative and non-conservative metrics in social network analysis. 1.

The ever-increasing amount of information flowing through Social Media forces the members of these networks to compete for attention and influence by relying on other people to spread their message. A large study of information propagation within Twitter reveals that the majority of users act as passive information consumers and do not forward the content to the network. Therefore, in order for individuals to become influential they must not only obtain attention and thus be popular, but also overcome user passivity. We propose an algorithm that determines the influence and passivity of users based on their information forwarding activity. An evaluation performed with a 2.5 million user dataset shows that our influence measure is a good predictor of URL clicks, outperforming several other measures that do not explicitly take user passivity into account. We also explicitly demonstrate that high popularity does not necessarily imply high influence and vice-versa. 1.

The ever-increasing amount of information flowing through Social Media forces the members of these networks to compete for attention and influence by relying on other people to spread their message. A large study of information propagation within Twitter reveals that the majority of users act as passive information consumers and do not forward the content to the network. Therefore, in order for individuals to become influential they must not only obtain attention and thus be popular, but also overcome user passivity. We propose an algorithm that determines the influence and passivity of users based on their information forwarding activity. An evaluation performed with a 2.5 million user dataset shows that our influence measure is a good predictor of URL clicks, outperforming several other measures that do not explicitly take user passivity into account. We demonstrate that high popularity does not necessarily imply high influence and vice-versa. 1.